Wednesday, 11 November 2009

Some early thoughts on 2010

See that debt clock on the right-hand-side? Watch it for a minute or two and try to work out when it will reach one trillion pounds.

I reckon Spring next year. Maybe even May 6th, expected date of the next general election. Perhaps before.

A few other treats are in store for us early next year.

  • The money for the car scrappage scheme will run out. (February probably)

  • Quantitative easing will stop. Next year's GDP won't have that £200bn stimulus.

  • VAT will rise from 15% to at least 17.5%, and some leaked documents indicated that the government is thinking of 18.5% or more. (Early hours of Jan 1st. They were going to make it on the stroke of midnight but with all the pubs and restaurants likely to be open at the time they eventually realised this would be a bad idea.)

  • Inflation will rise; if the BoE is doing its job interest rates will rise as well.

  • Gilt yields will rise. Ten year bonds are nudging 4% already.

Put it all together and what have you got? A rather gloomy Q1-Q2, I'd say.

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