Monday, 12 September 2011

Greece cannot survive

The Greek economy is effectively dead! Not legally dead, but effectively it's a gonner. Short-term Greek debt yields on the open market have just reached 100%. That means the cost of borrowing one million euros for the Greeks is: one million euros. That's the market's way of saying, "Don't bother asking."

The Greeks are still chowing down on bailout money from the EU, but this comes with strings attached. The Germans are demanding "Austerity". But the Greeks tried austerity, and they found that for every euro of spending they saved their economy shrank by enough to cut their tax base by a euro. So there was no gain.

They're like a man standing in quicksand with the Germans on the sidelines shouting, "Run!" But the man in quicksand knows that he's only sinking  slowly at the moment; if he were to start running he'd sink a lot faster and be dead a lot sooner.

So all that remains is for Germany to gather the relatives, make a short but moving speech, and pull the plug on Greece's life-support.

In this case "pulling the plug" means either Greece leaving the Eurozone, or having its sovereignty revoked and being run by Germans. It's a tough call which way the Germans will jump on this one. Either way though, the future for the average Greek on the street is penury.

4 comments:

chefdave said...

Good post. As a Eurosceptic I'd love to see the UK leave the EU, but controversially I've always had a soft spot for the Euro.

If they'd let countries like Greece go to the wall without bailouts the Euro could have continued, take the $ as an example, (I believe) individual states have defaulted in the past without putting the entire nation at risk. But EU politicians were just too vain to allow this to happen.

Anonymous said...

The problem with the Greek economy was that it was entirely government based. The productive sector of the Greek economy, which really is just shipping, was expected to finance a colossal unproductive sector (government and entitlements). It couldn't do it alone, so massive debts were ran up and now the chickens are coming home to roost.

Unrepentant British Nationalist said...

Hi,

I thought you might appreciate this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGmayjYQpB8

13 mins in!

Nationalist said...

Hi UBN,

Yes, Max Keiser is very entertaining, but a complete loon though. $500 silver? In his dreams! He has loaded up on the stuff and now wants the price to rise.