Monday, 31 October 2011

Seven billion people

The world's seven billionth person was born this morning at 7.20am in Uttar Pradesh, India. She is the daughter of a poor farming family from a small village. Whether Nargis Kumar will now be famous for life, or forgotten by next week, remains to be seen. My money is on the forgotten option.

That said, of course she isn't really the 7,000,000,000th person. No-one can know even to the nearest million how many people there are in the world. In any event she will lose her crown to the eight billionth person in 14 years, in 2025 and then by 2050 we will have the 9th billion and the 10th billion by the end of the 21st century, maybe sooner.

The history of the human race is one of growth and starvation cycles. The population grows, reaches the limit of the land to provide sustenance, and starves until a solution is found and then the population starts to grow again. So human history can be summarised as: breed, starve, invent hunting, breed, starve, invent herding, breed, starve, invent agriculture, breed, starve, invent fishing, breed starve, invent the domestication of animals, breed, starve, invent fertilizer, breed, starve, invent mechanised farming. And that's where we're at right now.

We have been very successful at pushing back the limits of the land; often faster than our population has grown so the starvation phase has been short and even in some places non-existent.

We could probably keep the current geometric growth rate sustained until the end of the 22nd century when the world would host 100bn humans. But the quality of each individual's life would be appallingly low. Even today in 3rd world countries the continual subdivision of land into smaller and smaller blocks by peasant farmers is causing hunger. To progress to the next population level countries like India, China, most of North Africa and the Middle East will need to clear the pastoralists from the land and institute mechanised megafarms. The people will need to be herded into the cities and live like battery chickens themselves. They will be surplus to economic requirements, but will still eat and breed.

In the animal kingdom there is a population growth spectrum which features high quantity low quality at one end and low quantity high quality at the other. This is known as the r/K reproductive strategy spectrum. At the "r" end animals produce a large number of offspring but invest little effort in developing each one, at the "K" end an animal produces a small number of offspring but puts immense pains into nurturing each one.

Human races exhibit a similar dichotomy. Europeans, including their cousins in North America, are slow breeders, even breeding below replacement rate in many European countries but invest inordinately in the education and development of their children. They are breeding for quality. Meanwhile Africans and South Asians breed many more young but invest little in their development. They do this in Africa and Asia, and when they migrate to the Northern Hemisphere they continue the same behavioural patterns, although fortunately for them the state then pays for the investment in their young. (There is also a "chav" class amongst Europeans which breeds fast and invests little, certainly invests little of their own resources, but even they do not approach the breeding rate of Asians and Africans.)

The growth in the world's population is entirely caused by the "r-strategist" ethnic populations. And these populations clearly maintain their habits when they move from the 3rd world to the first world.

This poses an existential threat to the European peoples. The resources of the world will be consumed by the r-strategists. If these rapid breeders were confined to their own areas they would simply expand to fill the carrying capacity of their own lands and then hit the hard limit. However they are largely free to move into the homelands of the K-strategist peoples. Hence the threat.

As the population of the world grows the proportion of that population which is "slow breeder" shrinks. In nature this doesn't happen because the highly nurtured young of the slow breeders compete successfully with the carelessly bred hoards of the fast breeders. But in human affairs this doesn't apply. We move over to make room for the incomers, and they in turn consume our finite resources. Hence we face extinction; not imminently, but eventually.

And after we are extinct, then the fast breeders will also starve, because they live off our productive capacity.

So to save ourselves we must deny the fast breeders access to our lands. They will breed and starve in their own lands, but we must not allow them to come here. And long before actual starvation becomes an issue the quality of our lives in the slow breeding North will be compromised if we continue to welcome and harbour fast breeding migrants.

Try this experiment. Go out onto the streets of any large British city, especially London. Look at the people; not the adults - look at the young in the pushchairs. What ethnic group are they? Are they mainly European? No! You may see equal numbers of European and ethnic adults but the children will mainly be ethnic. Therein lies the problem.

To solve this problem we must be firm on immigration. It must be stopped, and indeed reversed. If this problem isn't dealt with now your children will suffer, your grandchildren will suffer greatly and you won't have any great grandchildren.

No comments: