Friday, 9 March 2012

ISDA DC meets in solumn conclave

Yes folks, the Default Committee of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association is meeting at this instant to decide whether the Greek republic is in default of its debt obligations.

Yesterday holders of 85.8% of debt subject to Greek law and 69% of its international debt holders agreed a debt swap. They needed to get a 75% buy-in, and after weighting, they have.

So is it a default or is it not?

If it is a default the CDSes will pay out and the issuers will be in the hole for about €70 billion. If it is not then some say (Robert Peston to be precise) that CDSes are no longer worth the paper they are printed on so the whole three trillion (at this point currency doesn't really matter) market will collapse.

This blog reckons the verdict will be: Let's postpone this decision until some time in the future.

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