At the 2010 the general election the results were as follows:
Candidate Party Votes Percent Paul Goggins Labour 17,987 44.1 Janet Clowes Con 10,412 25.6 Martin Eakins LibDem 9,107 22.3 Bernard Todd BNP 1,572 3.9 Christopher Cassidy UKIP 1,405 3.4 Lynn Worthington TUSC 268 0.7 (TUSC is a small trade unionist/socialist party.)Labour holding the seat is not really in question. The two questions of note are, 1) will the Lib Dems get wiped out, and 2) how big a bite out of the Tories will UKIP take?
Wythenshawe is seen as a good early indicator of how the European elections in May are going to go. On the basis of Wythenshawe we could see realignments of the parties; the Lib Dems may be forced to distance themselves (further) from their government partners - they are already getting fractious with them and the Tories may be forced to formalise some sort of relationship with UKIP.
Sadly, the BNP is expected to lose vote share to UKIP.
So the significance of Wythenshawe is very much in the small print.