Friday, 14 February 2014

Wythenshawe results

The results are in, and they are as expected. Here are the numbers for yesterday and the general election in 2010.

            2010             2014
Party   Votes   %     Votes   %     Change

Labour  17,987  44.1  13,261  55.3  +11.2%
Con     10,412  25.6   3,479  14.5  -11.1%
LibDem   9,107  22.3   1,176   4.9  -17.4%
BNP      1,572  3.9      708   3.0  - 0.9%
UKIP     1,405  3.4    4,301  18.0  +14.6%
TUSC       268  0.7        -     -      
Greens       -    -      748   3.1  
Loony        -    -      288   1.2

Total   40,751        23,961

As you can see turnout was massively down, only half as many people voted this time (28% of the total electorate) - stormy weather cannot have helped.

Labour held the seat of course; they were always going to do that. But they increased their vote share quite impressively. The Tories lost almost the exact amount Labour gained. Some Tory loss was to be expected - the Tory voters mainly live in the more rural parts of the constituency and, given the weather and the inevitability of the result, must account for a large part of the no-shows.

No, the Tories' big problem is that UKIP has surged. Its vote share has grown by even more than Labour's. That was not enough to change this result, but there are plenty of places where it would be.

The LibDems were wiped out - they lost their deposit. They went down by even more than anyone else went up. They are looking at national oblivion unless they do something dramatic. If this had happened at a general election the LibDems would be left with Orkney and Shetlands and not much else. Certainly Nick Clegg (Sheffield Hallam) would lose his seat.

The BNP, as expected, lost a little ground, although nothing dramatic.

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