Friday, 6 May 2016

Trump backs Brexit

Looks like all our ducks are lining up nicely. Donald J Trump, Republican candidate for US President presumptive (ie all his serious opponents have discontinued their campaigns so now all that remains is the coronation) has come out on the side of Brexit, saying the UK would be better off without the EU. This is the complete opposite of what President Obama said last month when he threatened to put the UK to the back of the line for a trade deal with the US if we voted ourselves out of the EU.

Unfortunately it is by no means certain that Trump will take the White House. He mainly languishes behind Hillary Clinton (the most likely Democrat candidate) in the polls. And Hillary is anti-Brexit, saying she thinks a strong UK in a strong EU is ideal. Ironically, and often remarked upon, Hillary would never support America joining any organisation like the EU - the loss of self-determination would be unacceptable to Americans.

We will be doing the Brexit vote long before we know who the next President of the USA will be, and even if we do vote ourselves out there is a two year transition period during which opinions can change a lot. 

It is also worth remembering that in the past when countries vote the "wrong way" the EU makes them vote again to get it right. So one vote to leave might not make it stick. However the auguries are hopeful at the moment: we could get a Trump president and a Brexit before the end of the year.

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