Monday, 9 October 2017

North Korea: Should we be worried?

Worried? Moi? Well, yes, a bit. But not for the obvious reasons.

Rocket Boy, Kim Jong-un, isn't going to nuke us all. So far, he can just about manage to get a firework, sorry, missile, over Japan, and he can detonate an H-bomb in a cave. Yay for him, but he still has to put the H-bomb on the end of the missile and make it fly further than the country almost next door; in fact three times as far just to reach Guam which is a meaningless speck in the Pacific, and ten times as far to reach the USA. To reach the UK.... forget it.

Being nuked is not the problem. The problem is that North Korea is nobody's fault.

Let me explain. The world financial system is ready to collapse again, a mere ten years after the last time it collapsed in 2007. The recession of 2007 was caused by a massive debt bubble, itself caused by governments 'fixing' the dot com crash of 2000 by reducing interest rates to make debt more affordable. When the credit crunched in 2007 they reduced interest rates further and printed money in the process know as quantitative easing.

With interest rates on the floor the problem went away for a while, but of course people are greedy and eventually exploited the situation to take on even more debt to buy things they thought would go up; which made asset prices (houses, stocks) soar, which vindicated their decision and made them do it more.

So we need another crash to reset the global economy. Everything needs to fall back to affordability and sensible prices. But no politician is going to let that happen on their watch. No, siree! All politicians just kick the can down the road and pray the next crash happens after they have retired because whoever is holding the ball at the time the fan gets hit gets the blame.

Of course, since high political office is never vacant for long, there will be some politician holding the ball when the debt pile topples over. And what that politician needs, is an excuse - an external factor they can blame for the wrongs of the world; something that absolutely, definitely, could not be their fault. 

Enter, Rocket Boy! Whose fault is he? No-one's. He is a an external factor no-one could have seen coming. (They all saw him coming.) No-one is to blame for Kim Jong-un and so he is going to get the blame for the coming recession. All he needs is a bit of prodding to make him start a war and all the Western leaders have a flat-packed excuse delivered to their front doors.

Stocks falling; house prices falling; currency falling? So, raise interest rates and taxes and cut spending, benefits and pensions - all while pointing the finger at the fat boy. It would be stupid not to.


chefdave said...

I'm going to a seminar on Wednesday that includes the economics guru Fred Harrison, the guy who predicted the 2007 crash in 1997 (I have the book where he made the prediction). He is predicting another crash soon but a mini one, like the .com crash. Next big one is scheduled for about 2025 according to his 18 year cycle theory.

Anonymous said...

Love your theory of unfolding events, question is how to we get those commie bastards to start a war? Or better yet, how do we start one convincingly on their behalf? - Your friendly American Cousins :)