Friday, 28 May 2010

BP and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

It's now over a month since the Deepwater Horizon mobile oil exploration platform, located in the gulf of Mexico, caught fire and sank with the loss of eleven lives. The rig was owned by Transocean Ltd and under lease to BP Exploration at the time.

Since then oil has been gushing out from the well-head 5,000 feet underwater. How much oil is a matter of considerable debate. BP initially stated about 1,000 barrels a day was leaking, then revised their estimate up to 5,000bpd. Independent observers have put the leak rate at anything up to 100,000bpd. BP have refused to allow third-party scientists access to measure the leak (although under considerable political pressure they are displaying live video from an underwater camera at the well-head. Traders are monitoring this feed and buying and selling BP stock based on what they see.)

The leak rate is very important to BP as they may end up paying a fine between $1,000 and $4,000 per barrel. Under a worst-case assumption, their liability is already up to $12bn - although it's doubtful they would ever be expected to pay this much - these things are negotiable. Their civil liability is capped by the US 1990 Oil Pollution Act and is much less of a consideration.

Now let's look at the situation from BP's point of view. They have invested half a billion dollars to develop the well that is now leaking its oil into the gulf. Each day's leak could be worth an additional eight million dollars - do they really want to do whatever it takes to seal the well? Or do they want to stop the leak in a manner which allows the well to be pumped in the future?

Their first attempt to cap the leak involved lowering a large metal dome over the well-head. Oil would collect in the dome and be pumped up to tankers waiting on the surface. This failed, and a smaller dome was built and lowered which also failed. The next attempt to plug the leak involved inserting a syphon tube into the open well and drawing off oil. Clearly since there's no seal involved here this was never an attempt to stop the leak, merely to reduce the pollution and recover oil at the same time.

Meanwhile BP are spraying oil dispersant chemicals (Corexit EC9500A and Corexit EC9527A) from aircraft onto the slick. These chemicals are so toxic their use is illegal in the UK. This could be viewed as an attempt to save marine life by reducing the concentration of oil in the seawater. But since the marine life is going to be poisoned by the dispersant anyway perhaps the main benefit to BP is that it will make quantifying the spill, and thus their liability, much more difficult.

Another way of sealing a leaking underwater oil well is by explosion. The Russians have done this successfully in the past. The BP well is basically a tube six inches wide and 35,000 feet long. A large explosion (the Russians used nukes!) would collapse the tube and seal the well. But of course, once they've done that the well is useless and they'd have to spend another half a billion dollars drilling another one somewhere else.

Friday, 21 May 2010

That coalition agreement in full

The government has now published the final version of its coalition agreement, which is effectively a new manifesto replacing the original manifestos of the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

Read it here.

Synthia, the first man-made creature

"She" is a tiny unicellular bacterium and she is being reported as being made from scratch by men playing at being God.

But this first artificial organism wasn't really hand-assembled from component atoms. And it certainly wasn't designed from scratch. They copied the genetic blueprint from a naturally occurring microorganism, made up a single strand of DNA about half a million base pairs long, by using yeast as an incubator, and then inserted the resultant "chromosome" into a third naturally occurring microorganism from which they had removed the existing DNA. And with that Igor lived, and has gone on to have a billion children.

So it's another rung in the scientific ladder but it's not quite the breakthrough the press are reporting. The scientists don't actually understand how all the DNA they have assembled works. Designing a creature from the ground up would be the giant leap forward.

And once you can design and build a one-celled creature from nothing you can effectively make any life form you want. Even a blue whale starts life as a fertilised single cell. Once you've built that cell the rest is mere gestation.

Daily Mail

Tuesday, 18 May 2010

Judge Trigger has been reprimanded

Do you remember Judge Trigger?

Judge Trigger: Lax immigration controls

This blog reported that the august judge had himself a little rant from the bench over the case of one Lucien McClearley, 31, an illegal immigrant from Jamaica, for drugs offences, whom he jailed for two years after being found in possession of £7,200 worth of cannabis. The judge called the immigration system lax and blamed immigration for much of our vast national debt. (That makes him hero to this blog, of course!)

The powers-that-be don't take kindly to such judicial insubordination and preparations were made to slap him down.

Today the Lord Chief Justice has pronounced on the case. He has given Judge Trigger "formal advice".

That is what's known in court as a "walk out" result.

Inflation on the rise, still

Some of my numbers in the post below are out of date already. New inflation data is out. In the year to April, the consumer prices index (CPI) rose by 3.7 percent, up from 3.4 per cent in March.

In the year to April, the all items retail prices index (RPI) rose by 5.3 percent, up from 4.4 percent in March. The RPI annual inflation rate is now at its highest level since July 1991 (when it stood at 5.5 percent).

Clearly CPI at 3.7% is above the 2% target and also above the 3% allowable margin of error. The governor of the Bank of England and the new Chancellor have exchanged letters. The governor has said he thinks inflation will go down later in the year, and the chancellor has agreed it probably will - so no action required.

In truth they are still between a rock and a hard place. Rising inflation requires a hike in interest rates, but a hike in interest rates would choke off the economic recovery. However if they do nothing they get stagflation. In fact they've already got stagflation: economic growth is negligible, inflation is rampant.

All eyes on the emergency budget on 22nd June. (Is it just me, or isn't that a bit tardy for an emergency budget. I would have expected it much sooner.)

Merv's letter to George
George's reply to Merv
ONS release

Numbers at the beginning of the new era

Today our shiny new parliament meets for the first time. They will re-elect the speaker and some of them will get confused and try to sit on the wrong side of the house. So now seems a good time to record a few statistics about our country - just to have something to look back on in five years' time and see how they did.

So here goes....

National debt: £915,287,000,000 approx
Budget deficit: £168bn
Bank of England base rate: 0.5%
FTSE 100: 5350
Quantitative easing: £200bn
Most recent CPI: 3.4% (target is 2.0%)
One pound is worth: €1.1683, or US$1.4496, or CHF 1.64, or NOK 9.00
One barrel of Brent crude oil costs: $75.95
One litre of petrol costs: £1.219
One pint of organic milk costs: £0.53
Nationwide house price index: £167,802
Halifax house price index: £168,202

And the major topics of the day are....

  • The ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano is closing UK and European airports on a periodic basis.

  • A deep water BP oil well in the Gulf of Mexico is leaking several thousand barrels of oil a day into the sea. BP have tried and failed to cap the well head but have had more luck inserting a syphon into the well. Oil is just starting to come ashore in Florida.

  • Greece has been bailed out with EU money. Everyone is waiting with baited breath to see if contagion will spread to the other PIIGS nations.

It will be interesting to see if this is all ancient news in five years' time, or the start of something much more significant than we currently realise.

Monday, 17 May 2010

There's no money left

When new Chief Secretary to HM Treasury David Laws sat down at his new desk for the first time he found a letter from his predecessor, Liam Byrne. He hoped it would be full of good advice, unfortunately it just said:
Dear Chief Secretary, I'm afraid to tell you there's no money left.
Byrne claims it was meant as a joke. Laws didn't find it funny though. The new government has been lifting rocks and finding more debt under every one. The departing Labour administration, knowing it had nothing to lose, seems to have operated under a scorched earth policy of committing to vast expenditure in marginal constituencies knowing that it would either get them re-elected or someone else would be sorting out the mess.

On the plus side, this is the first time in thirteen years that a labour minister has told the truth!


Friday, 14 May 2010

France threatened to leave the euro

The euro is looking increasingly fragile this morning. According to Le Figaro, a French daily newspaper...
Sarkozy aurait menacé de quitter l'euro
Le président français Nicolas Sarkozy a menacé de sortir la France de l'euro pour forcer l'Allemagne à accepter le sauvetage de la Grèce, a déclaré le chef du gouvernement espagnol José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, selon des propos rapportés au quotidien El Pais de vendredi. Le journal, proche des socialistes au pouvoir en Espagne, affirme que M. Zapatero a affirmé cela lors d'une réunion mercredi avec des barons de son parti, le Parti socialiste ouvrier espagnol (PSOE) à Madrid.

Which this blog translates as follows...
The French president Nicolas Sarkozy threatened to take France out of the euro in order to force Germany to accept saving the Greeks, the Spanish Prime Minster José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said, according to El Pais, a Spanish daily newspaper, on Friday. The newspaper, which is close to the ruling socialists, states that Mr Zapatero said this to senior party figures at a meeting in Madrid on Wednesday.
So, it's a bit he said that she said etc, but it looks like Sarky played some major league hardball with the Germans. As mentioned in a previous post, France was in perilous position before the bail out - there's no way the French government could have saved its banking sector if Greece had defaulted.

We may now have reached the beginning of the end for the euro.

Deutschmark uber alles

The interweb is awash with rumours of the re-introduction of the Deutschmark this morning. It sounds rather unlikely, but the German people would love it if Angela Merkel just stood up and said, "The euro's not working; we're going back to the DM."

I wonder if the Germans have secretly printed up a completely new currency set, just in case.

It would not be unprecedented. The Swiss have already stockpiled a new currency ready to roll out with little notice in case the CHF suddenly loses credibility.

Nice post-mortem on 13 years of Labour misrule, by Jeff Randall

Jeff Randall of the Telegraph has written a scathing piece on Labour's years of mal-administration. Here's a choice quote:
Foremost among these comedians was Mr Campbell, who, having battled gamely to overcome alcoholism, appears to have succumbed to an even more powerful intoxicant: the fumes from his own exhaust. Others, such as Peter Hain and Ed Balls, are, one suspects, inhaling similar hallucinatory gases.
It's well worth a read.

Wednesday, 12 May 2010

Coalition considerations

First thoughts on the Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition...

From the nationalist, BNP-supporting point of view it's probably slightly more acceptable than a Lib/Lab pact. If we get the best of both worlds we'll have the Lib Dem's civil rights with the Tory sound economic management and euro-scepticism. That's if we get the best of both worlds.

The coalition will probably be quite stable. Neither side really has much to gain by rocking the boat. The various ministers are likely to work well together on a day to day basis.

But over time one suspects that the Lib Dems will start to feel irked. Continual bridesmaid status will stultify the party. Imagine a by-election, can the Lib Dems stand a candidate against the Tories? If yes, can that candidate have policies different from the Conservative's? If no there's little point having a distinct candidate but if yes then doesn't that break the coalition?

And in parliament the Lib Dems can no longer criticise the government, because they are the government. But they are not government enough to make new policy. So they will be in the position of having to agree with the Tories without having much input into Tory policy; whatever they agreed in that secret meeting yesterday is all they are ever going to get.

The Lib Dems may think they are the tail that can wag the dog and that by threatening to leave the coalition they can steer the Tories, but, firstly it seems they have signed up for a fixed term, and secondly, whichever party "breaks" the government will be punished at the subsequent election; it won't look good to the public if you're the one who brought down the government. So they're pretty much locked in.

It will take quite a while for the degree of constraint they are under to become apparent to the Lib Dems, so we can expect a long honeymoon period. The drama is probably over for many months or even years now.

The leaving of Gordon Brown

Brown was very statesman-like yesterday evening. He stood down as Labour leader and Prime Minister before he was pushed, went to the palace to offer Her Majesty his resignation, came back and gave a serious speech in Downing Street where he said what a privilege it had been to serve the country, and how grateful he was to have had the opportunity to deliver prosperity, fairness, justice, and green policies to this country he loves so much. He ended with a saccharin comment about how being a father and husband was an even greater honour.


What a shame he never actually did any of those things he "had the opportunity" to do.

Brown's legacy of thirteen years in high office is a trashed economy, a national debt approaching a trillion pounds, a private debt mountain crippling many citizens, a justice system that sees police officers acting as judge and jury on the streets, and that's when they've got time left over from their tax-collecting duties. In the courts we've lost the right to silence, the presumption of innocence, and we've just finished our first serious (mainland) criminal trial without a jury since the Middle Ages.

He's left us with hundreds of stealth taxes; a bloated public sector where bureaucrats outnumber doctors, nurses, teachers or soldiers; where the typical job involves community outreach or diversity, or eating five portions of fruit and vegetables per day.

No, Bown's legacy to this country is dire. We're well rid.

Tuesday, 11 May 2010

Lib Dems playing hard to get

At the time of writing we don't have a government in the UK. The Lib Dems are considering the differing attractions of cosying up to the Conservatives (offering a referendum on the AV+ voting system) or Labour (offering a true PR voting system, maybe without even a referendum - they're being a bit cagey on that, and Gordon Brown's head on a platter.)

But the Lib Dems have a problem. With the Conservatives they could form a government with a clear majority. Add their MPs together and you get 364 (assuming the yet to vote 650th constituency as Tory) which is a majority of 39 seats. That's a slam dunk.

But with Labour the Lib Dems only amount to 315, more than the Conservatives but not a majority. They would then need to rope in at least 10 more to make up the numbers.

So the answer is obvious: coalition with the Tories!

But, there's a major problem here. The Lib Dems are basically an anti-Tory party. In most of their 57 constituencies they have a majority of two thousand votes or so over the Conservatives, achieved by persuading every Tory-hater in the area to vote tactically for the Lib Dems as the only way to keep the Conservatives out. (In most Lib Dem constituencies Labour are nowhere!)

So an alliance with the Conservatives would be like snuggling up to the devil for the grassroots supporters. It's really quite unthinkable.

So the options are: coalition with Conservatives and the Lib Dem party revolts; coalition with Labour and the party is happy but the majority so fragile that nothing can be achieved.

No wonder Cleggsy can't make up his mind. He wanted this hung parliament so he could be the main man, king-maker extraordinaire, the guy who calls the shots. Presumably he never imagined he wouldn't be able to deliver a working majority to both sides. He's been hoist by his own petard! And with every passing hour it's becoming more and more apparent to the British public that a PR system with horse-trading after every election would be very bad idea.

PR leads inevitably to corruption. At the moment the parties are behind closed doors arguing about which policies will be on the table; before long they will be arguing about which politicians are sitting around the table, the cabinet table to be precise, then the closed-door discussions will turn to who gets which country house and which grace-and-favour apartment. Disappointed wanna-be ministers obliged to settle for a lesser position will be sweetened with taxpayers' money in one form or another.

Given the election results there is now actually no good outcome possible. It's going to be a fudge whichever way the Lib Dems swing. And they had better swing pretty fast - they are losing credibility by the hour.

And if no government is formed, sooner or later the financial markets will lose their nerve. The markets don't care whose hand is on the tiller, but they won't accept no-one's hand on the tiller.

C'mon Cleggy, decide already!

Monday, 10 May 2010

Post election analysis by BNP chairman

Nick Griffin, Chairman of the BNP, has sent his analysis of the general election results to all members and supporters in an email. It's so interesting that I will reproduce it in full below - hopefully he will forgive the blatant copyright theft.

Nick Griffin, MEP: Chairman of the BNP

His email in full...
Dear Fellow Patriot,

I appreciate that everybody is feeling very tired after this bruising campaign and some disappointing headline results. In fact, as you will see later in this message, behind the media's sneers, there is real concern about the progress that we have made in this extraordinarily hard-fought contest.

With the result now in, Britain faces its first "hung parliament" since 1974 and the next Government - if there is to be one and not a new election in a few months' time - will be a coalition of two of the main parties.

Ironically, this provides the British National Party (which spectacularly almost tripled its vote from 2005, jumping from 192,746 to a healthy 563,743 in yesterday's contest) with its best window of opportunity yet.

The kingmaker in any coalition will be the Liberal Democrats under Nick Clegg. Their key demand for participation in a coalition is electoral reform, and in particular the abolition of the current "first-past-the-post" election system. The reason why the Liberal Democrats oppose the first-past-the-post system is that it clearly puts a smaller party (which is what the Liberal Democrats are) at a hugely unfair disadvantage.

The figures tell the story: yesterday the Liberal Democrats won around 23 percent of the vote, but will end up with only 7 percent of the seats in Parliament. The BNP, which polled close to a million votes in June 2009, and over half a million yesterday (despite only fighting half of all the available 650 seats), will end up with no seats at all.

In effect, the first-past-the-post system simply throws millions of votes onto the rubbish heap where they are ignored. As a result, the Liberal Democrats have argued for the introduction of proportional representation (PR) in Britain.

Under a PR system, if a party gets 10 percent of the votes, it gets 10 percent of the seats in Parliament. If it gets 32 percent of the vote, it gets 32 percent of the seats, and so on.

It is an obviously fairer way of allowing all votes cast in an election be reflected in Parliament. In fact, a slightly amended system of PR is used in European Parliamentary elections, which allowed the BNP to win its two seats in that body in June 2009.

If the Liberal Democrats are involved in a coalition with either Labour or Conservatives, it is inevitable that they will set the demand for a PR system as one of the preconditions for their cooperation.

In fact, Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg has already made this demand in public - and both Labour and Conservatives have announced their willingness to consider it or, at the very least, hold a referendum on the topic.

What does this mean for the BNP? The tripling of the BNP vote on 6 May has some important implications.

Firstly, where we went head-to-head with UKIP and the Greens, we thrashed them. We outvoted UKIP in 178 seats and they beat us in 123. We outvoted the Greens in 134 seats for the Greens 23. UKIP had a huge budget and their campaign was backed by 13 MEPs, in it must not be forgotten that both UKIP and the Greens enjoy favourable treatment at the hands of the controlled media.

Secondly, while all minority parties were pushed out to the edge by the 'big boys', our vote not only held up but proportionately increased when compared to our June 2009 Euro election results.

When put into perspective, yesterday's result becomes even more interesting:

- In 1983, the BNP fought 54 seats and polled 14,000 votes.

- In 1987, the BNP fought 2 seats and polled 563 votes.

- In 1992, the BNP fought 13 seats and polled 7,000 votes.

- In 1997, the BNP fought 54 seats and polled 35,000 votes.

- In 2001, the BNP fought 33 seats and polled 47,000 votes.

- In 2005, the BNP fought 117 seats and polled 192,746 votes.

- In 2010, the BNP fought 339 seats and polled 563,743 votes.

Based on yesterday's impressive vote totals, the BNP would win in excess of 60 seats in Westminster under a PR system.

Some of the more perceptive Conservative journalists, such as Norman Tebbit, have already realised this as a possibility and have written about it in national newspapers.

In addition, many political commentators have already remarked that, on a night which saw all the smaller parties squeezed - including the Lib-Dems, who lost five seats - the strong showing and turnout of the BNP vote was "a source of great concern."

They have seen how the public hostility towards us is fast disappearing. I felt it on the streets and I'm sure you did too.

Compare this with a few years ago when we endured frequent confrontations and 'screamers'. This election we enjoyed a very friendly response on the streets and no aggravation (apart from the exception of activists from Labour's far left thuggish allies).

I have heard reports from all over the country, and have experienced it for myself, that the 'screamers' who used to pop out of the woodwork in almost every street, have all but completely vanished.

The shift in the public's perception of us now is really very encouraging. Unfortunately in this much hyped General Election, people voted for a change in government and have (some with gritted teeth) reverted back to the old parties.

Our adversaries recognised this probably before us and have done everything to keep us as a small fringe party. Under PR we could easily fill a bus with BNP MPs.

As the coalition negotiations begin, let those who might feel disappointed at the BNP's failure to secure a parliamentary seat yesterday reflect on what might happen in a short while.

The introduction of PR to Britain will dramatically change the face of British politics and propel the BNP into the mainstream political debate once and for all.

Unfortunately, the high turnout generated by the General Election hype meant that we were also squeezed severely in local elections nationwide.

Our vote remained rock solid but the percentages were against us.

Perhaps the most sobering reality we must now face is the demographic disaster unfolding all over the country, but especially in Barking & Dagenham and London generally. The simple fact is this: we have been swamped by immigrants.

Labour is carrying out a policy of gerrymandering through immigration. This has meant the death of the old East End and by the time of the next General Election, London will be completely unassailable, colonised and in truth no longer part of Britain.

We need to develop a new strategy to protect our dispossessed and marginalised people in these 'occupied territories.' As our people are pushed first into political impotence and then into absolute minority status, to continue fighting first-past-the-post elections and securing an ever-dwindling vote is simply a recipe for demoralisation and failure.

We will instead develop a new strategy for these areas, based on civil rights agitation and legal challenges to the authorities whenever they marginalise our white minority.

I know how hard everybody worked and I know there is a positive change in the public's attitude towards the BNP. You must have felt it too. This tended to lead to raised expectations which, while they have not been this time in the ballot box, do truly reflect the undercurrent of ever growing sympathy for our party and our message. We all know the feeling is there and growing.

At the end of the day, we tripled our vote and we can now build on the huge experience we have gained through fighting two national elections in less than a year.

The glaring item lacking in the BNP armoury is our underdeveloped Elections Department. This will now be the focus of a huge overhaul and re-structuring, bringing it into line with the very best and almost futuristic election machines of Labour and the Lib-Dems.

The BNP has the courage and determination and some of the best politically motivated people of all the parties. However, our methods, tactics and electioneering apparatus are basically 20 years out of date.

This was discussed at a leadership meeting in February and while we recognised the urgent need for modernisation, there was no way we could start to reform and modernise before the election.

Through a substantial investment in administration, fundraising and logistics, the BNP possesses a finely tuned administrative regime. As an example of what the administrative staff can do is illustrated by the fact that all of the 8,000 inquiries received centrally in the six weeks of the campaign, have already been sent information packs.

Some 6,000 have already been databased and passed on to the regional organisers so that follow-up work can start immediately. This is a very rapid and efficient turnaround of an absolutely crucial job.

We do however need to acknowledge that there were very serious problems in the campaign, particularly in the Publicity Department. The new team which took over - Clive Jefferson, Alwyn Deacon and all others involved - did a fantastic job under the most difficult of circumstances in rescuing that situation by the skin of our teeth.

Now we need to focus all of our attention and energies in harnessing and utilising the very best in modern electioneering practices. This will start immediately and this month will see the first event in our new training programme being rolled out.

We need to grasp the huge potential in exploiting postal votes, tele-canvassing and other modern methods and techniques. We also need to equip ourselves to perform well in community politics.

Although the Greens were practically wiped out in this election, they still managed to secure their first MP. How did they do this? They invested heavily on the ground by being fully involved in local community politics. This afforded them 'credibility' through an effective presence in community politics. Minority parties can overcome obstacles by producing effective councillors. To do that we need to invest heavily in training for our people who are at the 'coalface '

We are now stronger than ever and have proven ourselves capable of planning, fighting and financing two national election campaigns on the largest scale ever, one after another.

We will now focus on a massive overhaul of our political machinery.

External attacks disguised as internal friction will be a common feature as our political enemies spin their web of lies and deceit designed to prevent us from reaching our true potential. Our enemies' weapons will be disharmony, conflict, misinformation and never-ending legal warfare.

They will not succeed, but we all must remain ever vigilant. If someone tells you a piece of 'shocking' internal gossip which clearly is aimed at undermining the people now working to propel the party forward, then you need to treat such lies with the contempt they deserve. Don't believe, let alone pass on, any such disinformation without telling the target about the allegation and hearing the truth. Our enemies have huge resources at their disposal and will exploit the slightest chink in our armour to inject their poison amongst us.

So let us build on the lessons of the last two years of spectacular growth and advances. We have all worked incredibly hard and I know the price our families pay. Take a break; spend time with your family - because we will have all this to do again in a very short time.

This election has been a shambolic farce for our democracy. However, this is an opportunity for us and now is the time to re-structure, modernise and invest in this party's election machine and that's exactly what we ARE going to do.

Yours sincerely,
Nick Griffin, MEP
Leader, British National Party

Perhaps the most encouraging part of the above is that under a PR system the BNP would now have 6+ MPs at Westminster.

Which is not to say this blog supports PR. Unfortunately PR systems tend to produce weak governments based on compromise and back-room deals. This vacillation bleeds though into all parts of the country which lapses into low-grade corruption and low productivity. Strong countries need strong, ideologically sound leadership.

Euro crisis averted

After meeting for 11 hours over the weekend, a meeting so fraught the German finance minister was hospitalised, the eurozone governments have averted what was shaping up to be a Black Monday on the financial markets.

They have announced a European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism comprising €440bn of loan guarantees, €60bn of funding from the European Commission, plus a contribution of €250bn from the IMF - all this on top of the €110bn loaned to Greece last week.

This dwarfs the American's $700bn TARP. It's very big money. The ECB will be buying bonds from the PIIGS governments directly - illegal under the Lisbon Treaty, but as I mentioned at the time it was ratified the treaty contains a mechanism to modify itself.

The reason for this largess with the euro-taxpayers' money (fortunately the UK has largely declined to take part in this cash giveaway) is twofold: to prop up the governments of the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) but also, and perhaps more significantly, to protect the Franco-German banking complex. The French banks especially simply could not afford for the PIIGS to default on their loans. It would cost them more than they have, and worse, the French government could not afford to dig them out of a hole that deep.

Consider the words of Lord Polonious from Shakespeare's Hamlet, 1602,

Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.

The first line is the one usually quoted, but the last line is where the true wisdom lies: people (and governments) who start to live on borrowed money are far less prudent in their spending that those using their own cash.

Friday, 7 May 2010

Yesterday we voted

About 30 million of us voted and we seem to have given the Conservatives the largest share of the vote, over 10 million votes compared to Labour's 8 million, but not enough to gain an absolute majority. At this time it is not clear who will form the next government, although the Conservatives seem to be making overtures to the Lib Dems.

However it's not too soon to postmortem the BNP's performance. They got about half a million votes; they contested about half the constituencies. Nick Griffin, the most likely to get a Westminster seat, came third in Barking and Dagenham behind Labour and the Tories, pushing the Lib Dems into fourth place.

Barking results: click to enlarge

In 2005 the BNP candidate Richard Barnbrook more or less drew with the Conservatives. This time Nick Griffin has lost vote share as both the Conservatives and Labour have gained support. The incumbent Labour MP, the Egyptian immigrant Margaret Hodge, retained her seat.

This isn't a good showing and there are rumblings of discontent in the Nationalist community. The feeling is Nick Griffin shouldn't parachute himself into the best opportunity where ever it is in the country; he should take a more aloof, reserved position and let a local run as candidate. The BNP is the party of localism after all.

There is also some discontent at how Nick Griffin is running the Party. The website went off air yesterday, a very bad time for that to happen, and it is still effectively static. Apparently the BNP webmaster, Simon Bennett, had a parting of the ways with the Party in the days running up to the election. Losing vital staff at such a critical time, for whatever reason, shows poor management. As the team goes into bat it is essential to ensure that everyone is happy. This is by no means the first time senior staff have left unexpectedly. Mark Collette, head of publicity, recently left under a cloud with no explanation from the leadership.

Further the Party keeps getting embroiled in legal action (EHRC, Marmitegate) which cost money and spooks staff who are on the receiving end of writs.

They also need greater financial transparency. The accounts seem to be published late more often than not, and spending is not properly accounted for.

Nick Griffin's strengths are in the front-of-house of politics: oratory, debate and inspirational leadership. He's not so good at running a party. He has shed a lot of activists who have become disaffected. They need to be brought back into the nationalist tent. What the BNP really needs is a star Chief of Staff; someone behind the scenes who makes sure all the i's are dotted and t's crossed; someone who makes sure the accounts are transparent and comprehensive and submitted to the Electoral Commission on time; someone who can actually say "No" to the leader and make it stick.

The BNP is also hampered by the presence of other parties with very similar ideologies, notably UKIP, but also the Christian Party and the English Democrats. Certainly UKIP and the EDs could be subsumed into the BNP with very little difficulty as they agree on the major policy items of an English parliament and withdrawal from the European Union political project.

Indeed it seems that most grassroot UKIP members are merely would-be BNP members who haven't quite plucked up the nerve to join the BNP yet.

There needs to be some sort of accommodation with these parties. They should not be running candidates against each other. That's just foolish.

Coming back to the election, although the BNP showing wasn't brilliant, there is some encouragement to be found in the results. The BNP share of the vote grew by 1.2%, behind the Conservative growth of 3.8%, but ahead of all the other parties. (There's no denying the Conservatives have really had a barnstorming result. It's only the absurdity of the way the constituency boundaries are drawn which has stopped them from romping home. If Labour had had that share of the vote they would have a 100 MP majority!)

So, as was said in the previous post, we shouldn't be too upset at the lack of a BNP MP in Westminster. What we want is solid and continual growth in BNP support, and that's what we have.

BBC election results

Thursday, 6 May 2010

Today we vote

It's general election 2010 day. The polling stations are open and will remain open until 10pm. By now all good nationalists should have put their X next to the BNP candidate's name.

If you're thinking a BNP vote won't actually make any difference so you might vote tactically, think again. True, the BNP will likely get few if any Westminster MPs - Barking and Dagenham is the most likely first gain. But the BNP counts its victories not so much in seats gained, although that's nice, but in support gained. The BNP received around 1 million votes in the Euro elections last year - can it improve on that today? Is it winning the argument, swaying people? Even if the BNP doesn't take a single seat the size of its "electorate" gives it moral authority. That means every vote really does count.

And in practical terms, a lot of BNP members have done a lot of work in the run up to this election, you should reward them with a vote. And it will help the Party financially if deposits (£500) are retained, which requires 5% of the vote.

Lastly, remember, elections come along quite regularly. Nationalism is a continual process, not a one-off event. Provided more and more people keep voting BNP they will eventually be the government of this country. Hopefully we will still have a country to govern when this happens.

Wednesday, 5 May 2010

The truth will out

Mainstream television is notoriously bad at telling the public what is actually going on in our country. It is hobbled by political correctness and draconian anti-free speech laws. The BBC is everyone's whipping boy and commercial TV has advertisers to placate.

But sometimes the truth gets out. The Bill is a "police procedural" quasi-soap broadcast once or twice a week on ITV1. The programme has a habit of occasionally throwing off the shackles and telling it like it is. Yesterday's episode, That Type of Cop, was true to form.

It delved into the murky and under-reported world of Muslim grooming of white girls for sex and prostitution. In the programme, Hassan, a good-looking 19-year-old Asian boy, befriends a 15-year-old white girl and gains her trust before passing her on to his "uncle" who has her gang-raped in a club full of Asians where she is kept for two years and is repeatedly raped and tortured before escaping and eventually being reunited with her loving parents.

All credit due to the The Bill for even suggesting there is such a thing as Asian predation on white girls.

Although, their portrayal of the phenomenon was, despite its horrific storyline, actually somewhat sanitised.

Firstly the girls being taken were 15-year-olds. Muslim paedophiles prefer to start with 12 or 13-year-old girls. And it is a Muslim proclivity, not a pan-Asian crime. This blog has never heard of Hindus or Sikhs doing such a thing. Sex with underaged girls is implicitly endorsed by the Muslim religion; the prophet Mohammed married his second wife Aisha when she was seven and "enjoyed" her from the age of nine. Some Muslims see no reason not to follow his example.

Typically the victim is a white girl in care. Aged 12 or 13 she is befriended by a slightly older, good-looking Asian lad who introduces her to drugs and gets her sexually active. Eventually she, of her own free will, runs away with him, and is reported "absconded from care", not "missing" - a crucial difference. The authorities make no great effort to find her and she has no loving parents to battle for her. By now she will be drug-dependent and cowed into submission.

Her "boyfriend" then passes her on to "uncles" and "cousins" who rape her and force her to work as a prostitute.

And there it ends. Unlike in the Bill she's never rescued although as she gets older the paedophile gang will eventually lose interest in her.

Muslim paedophile rape gangs are by no means exclusively a British phenomenon. In France they call them Tournantes, a term which translates roughly as: take your turn. They also have them in Sweden. Indeed there is little reason to believe that Muslims won't prey on vulnerable white girls wherever they have the opportunity. It's just a Muslim thing.

If you've the stomach for it you can read a harrowing BBC report of one girl's ordeal here. Of course, being the BBC, they somehow fail to note the Muslim connection.

The BNP has been trying to raise awareness of this outrage. They have written to chief police officers but have just been fobbed off with a see-no-evil, hear-no-evil, don't-care-about-evil nonchalance. The authorities just don't want to know. Or maybe they're frightened.

If it's fear, then let's ensure that one day they are more frightened of us!

Tuesday, 4 May 2010

Election fraud in progress

With a couple of days left until the polls open for the 2010 General Election, or possibly the first 2010 General Election, rumours abound that certain parties are not playing the game fairly.

Vote-rigging seems to be endemic in the Pakistani-British community. Households with three or four adults are suddenly acquiring ten or more extra residents who all require a postal vote.

The Daily Mail says...
Police have launched 50 criminal inquiries nationwide amid widespread cases of electoral rolls being packed with ‘bogus’ voters.

Officials report a flood of postal vote applications in marginal seats. With the outcome of the closest election in a generation hanging in the balance, a few thousand ‘stolen’ votes there could determine who wins the keys to Downing Street.

Fraud is suspected in 12 London boroughs, with Tower Hamlets being the centre of this nefarious activity. For the first time ever the Commonwealth is sending monitors to observe the election as though we were some kind of third world country.

An Independent journalist send to investigate (link) election fraud in Bethnal Green was viciously assaulted by a gang of Asians.

Jerome Taylor:
Poked his nose where Asians didn't want it

Meanwhile Mehmood Chaudhry, a Pakistani MP from Murpur, the region of Kashmir that 70% of the British Asians of Pakistani-origin come from, has told the BBC that he habitually visits the UK during elections in order to tell people who to vote for. (Link)

What business it is of his, he doesn't explain. Although this article in the Hindustan Times makes it clear Asians now control who governs the UK.

The Hindustan Times says...
Britain, which is seeking to overhaul its immigration policy, cannot afford to upset the Asian community because of its increasing electoral clout, says the chairperson of the Indo-British Friendship Society.

"No political party can govern if they upset the Asian vote," India-born Rami Ranger, who also heads the Sun Group of Industries, told IANS.

"We can elect 40 to 50 members of parliament from several inner cities... They cannot afford to go wrong," said Ranger, 60, who migrated to Britain in 1971 and today steers a business empire that exports products and services to 40 countries.

So by fair means and foul the immigrant tail is now wagging the British dog.

The foul means involve registering fictitious people at "friendly" addresses and voting them using postal votes. In addition "community leaders" collect up blank postal ballot papers and fill them in themselves before sending them off.

Back in 2005 three Labour councillors, all coincidentally called Mohammed, were caught red-handed by police operating a vote-rigging factor in a disused warehouse. (Link)

But the fact they were Labour councillors is no coincidence. During its period in office Labour has vastly expanded postal voting in this country. Previously it was only available to invalids who were housebound and civil servants posted overseas. Now it's available on demand. One can only assume that Labour expects to benefit from the inevitable fraud that has ensued. (George Galloway's vehicle, the Respect Party is also heavily supported by Asians; in this case Asians of Bangladeshi origin. It may also gain from electoral fraud.)

Requiring a voter to vote in person and in secrecy is fundamental to the integrity of our electoral system. No one can coerce someone to vote as directed if they cannot see how they voted, nor can a person prove they voted in a particular way so bribing or rewarding complicit voting is also impracticable.

If many constituencies are won by small majorities, the general election may have to decided in the courts in the weeks to come.

Truly, when you import a third-world population you become a third-world country.