Friday, 9 December 2011

Cameron did good

"Dave" Cameron has returned from Euroland not waving a piece of paper, nor promising peace in our time. Instead he has said, "Non, nein, nej, etc" and told the eurozoners that the UK will not be joining them in their latest orgy of submission to Brussels.

"Smelly Frenchies, I laugh at your treaty!"

The other 26 nations of the EU have all signed up in principle to an accord which says (a) legal limit of 0.5% of GDP for their deficits with sanctions cutting in at 3%, (b) European Court of Justice has power to enforce this, (c) issuance of bonds to be cleared through Brussels, (d) €200bn to be handed over the IMF, and (e) economic policy to be coordinated at the European level, ie, we see your budgets and can change them before your own citizens get a look in.

Agreeing to this accord would hand over another thick slice of sovereignty to Europe and Cameron declined. The other 26 all said yes, but some of them have to run it past their own parliaments which may be a whole other story.

The accords are supposed to be written into each member state's Constitution which is intended to bind their hands forever more. (We barely have a written Constitution so that would have been a bit awkward.)

This does turn the EU into 26+1 rather than 27 united. Historically the UK has always wanted to avoid this as it provides a forum for the others to do things we cannot veto. Although we would not be bound by a decision made at the "26" level, it could be imposed on us de facto.

If the Europeans want to legislate in an area where we have a veto they can just move the decision to the "26" inner circle. The new rule would then not apply in the UK but would apply to any British person or company as soon as they wanted to do business in Europe. Blocking decisions which harm our interests will become very difficult. We could be cornered in quite a nasty way.

And there is another issue: can EU institutions such as the Court of Justice be used to arbitrate on a treaty between 26 states? Surely an agreement from the 27 would be required for this. (Are British judges on the CoJ really going to be handing down judgements on infractions of the 26-state treaty? I cannot see the others being happy about that!)

Completely out of the EU we could simply walk away from any decision we didn't like. Since we have a massive trade deficit with the rest of Europe this gives us serious negotiating power. But bound by the "27" rules we cannot use this power. For example we cannot apply to join the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA).

However, it remains to be seen how this whole thing will pan out. The accords may get watered down when they reach the national parliaments, and don't forget, the Irish get a referendum on any Constitutional changes - that's another can of worms to look forward to. It could all fall apart in the coming months. So Cameron was right to keep us out. Let's face it, they're never going to refuse us admission if we later decide we want to be in the inner circle.

On the plus side, the immediate objective of pacifying the bond markets has already been achieved.

Thursday, 8 December 2011

Stealth drone down

"Stealth drone down" doesn't have the same ring to it as Blackhawk down, but this could be a game-changer anyway.

The Americans have lost an RQ170... unarmed, unmanned recon aircraft launched by the USAF from Afghanistan but controlled by the CIA from Virginia, USA.

The Iranians now have it; it's on public display on Tehran. They claim it violated their territorial airspace. The Americans claim it was never flown into Iranian airspace.

The killer fact is this: the missing RQ170 did not crash - it's undamaged. The Iranians appear (and claim) to have taken over control, hacked it, and landed it. If they actually did this their capability is far in advance of anything anyone previously thought - especially the Americans - and completely changes the face of warfare. How long before a subverted Predator (a drone totting Hellfire missiles) is turned back and attacks friendly forces?

"Kill the white slag"

It looks like "tram lady", Emma West from Croydon, who earlier this year saw her home town trashed by rioting immigrants and was rather vocal on a tram, will be spending Christmas in jail. Her two children have already been taken into care.

Meanwhile a gang of Somalis who, completely unprovoked, attacked a white woman in Leicester, kicking her in the head and shouting "Kill the white slag," have been spared jail at trial.

Judge Brown said that "Those who knock someone to the floor and kick them in the head can expect to go inside" but he went on to suspend the jail sentence because the ethnics were muslims and not used to drinking.

Clearly it's one law for us and a completely different law for them.

Monday, 5 December 2011

Woman on tram

There are actually several "women on tram/train" videos doing the rounds. However, the one which has really caught the public's attention is Emma West. See her rant here:

This rant has cost Miss West dearly: her two children have been taken into care, and she has been incarcerated in HMP Bronzefield in Middlesex.

I wonder how this individual will fare?

Unlike Miss West he recommends physical violence including smashing Miss West's head into pieces and throwing her out the window.

He goes on to blame slavery for the fact he doesn't have an elephant to ride on, a queen and eighteen pygmies to serve him.

The second video has been reported to the police by the BNP (crime reference number CR03-00034035) for incitement to violence.

It will be interesting to see if the authorities take commensurate action, or whether Miss West has been picked on purely for being white.

Thursday, 1 December 2011

Public sector strikes

Did you thank Margaret Thatcher and the Tory government of the 1980s and early 90s yesterday?

"Why on Earth would I do that?" you might ask.

Well, we had an across-the-board public sector strike yesterday. You may not have noticed of course. Schools were closed; hospitals reduced to emergency response only; bureaucrats everywhere downed their paperclips and rubber stamps - and quite possibly there was no effect on you whatsoever.

But prior to the 1980s the power stations were in the public sector - the lights would have gone out. The gas companies were public sector - the heating would have gone off. The telephones were public sector - business would have ground to a halt. Even water was public sector - the taps could have run dry. Buses and trains were all public sector - public transport would have stopped running.

None of that worries us anymore. We just assume, with good reason, that the power, gas, water, comms etc will all be there for us. The Tory privatisations of 20 years ago give us this confidence.

So, thanks Maggie, you did at least one thing right. And I do believe this is why you did it, so the unions couldn't hold the country ransom anymore.

Wednesday, 30 November 2011

Autumn Statement, 2011

Yesterday, Chancellor George Osborne delivered his Autumn Statement to parliament. He did one last year as well, only back then he called it his “comprehensive spending review.” Last year he promised he’d have reduced the deficit to nil by 2014/15 – the last year in office for this government. However yesterday that fell by the wayside, he no-longer has any realistic prospect of stopping borrowing.

Yesterday, timed to coincide with the Statement, the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) released new forecasts for growth, and basically, they’ve been halved since the OBR last pronounced in March this year.

Our GDP is predicted to grow as follows:
    Year     Growth
    2011/12  +0.9%
    2012/13  +0.7%
    2013/14  +2.1%
    2014/15  +3.0%
    2015/16  +3.0%
Given the OBR was wrong by a straight 100% over the last eight months I think we can consign those figures to the trash without delay. However, the Chancellor did use them as the basis for his Statement. He noted with satisfaction that no recession is forecast.

The flip side of a GDP failing to grow is a deficit ballooning out of control. Here are Osborne’s new forecasts, as compared with his forecasts in the budget in March this year.
    Year         Autumn Statement      Budget 2011
    2011/12      £127bn                £122bn
    2012/13      £120bn                £101bn
    2013/14      £120bn                £70bn
    2014/15      £79bn                 £46bn
So that’s an extra £100bn of borrowing during the course of this parliament at the stroke of a pen.

George’s solution to our problems is simple: he has decided to cut spending even more, but then spend all the money saved - on infrastructure projects. He has taken a knife to the overseas aid budget; he’s going follow the current public sector wage freeze which expires in a year with a 1% cap, and he’s going to make public sector pay “responsive” to local job markets.

This last item sounds innocuous but has the potential to be massive. Past governments have relocated some of the labour intensive Whitehall departments to very poor areas of the country. Since civil servants are paid on nationally agreed rates you can get a big building with a thousand public sector workers inside acting as the anchor for a local deprived economy. A thousand guaranteed salaries are spent into the High Street of some poor Welsh town and that money keeps the town in business. Now it seems that Osborne intends to pay civil servants in poor areas a lesser wage. This is likely to be controversial. Labour greeted this remark with a sharp intake of breath.

Osborne also raised some cash by increasing the pension age from 66 to 67 for anyone born during the 1960s. That’s an extra year’s taxes from 10 million people, and an extra year he doesn’t have to pay them a pension. (Younger people already knew they were working until the age of 67.)

Then comes the spending. The Chancellor is going to “credit ease” to the tune of £44bn. He’ll be handing this money to the banks to be lent out to businesses with a turnover of less than £50 million. This is effectively “printed” money; it doesn’t come out of the budget.

He will also be funding 500 major infrastructure projects: roads, railways, bridges, power stations; comms networks – you name it, he’s building some.

Also, a lot of house building is going to happen. People renting council houses are to be allowed to buy the house in which they live for a 50% discount off the market rate. Osborne has pledged that for every house so sold another will be built. (People living in privately rented houses are wondering when they are going to be gifted half a house!)

The government will also provide mortgage guarantees to allow people with little cash to get on the housing ladder. You will be able to borrow 95% of the value of a house; finding only the 5% yourself, while the government guarantees the next 8% so the lender’s liability is only 87%. This applies to new build houses only.

Osborne renewed his pledge to look at merging National Insurance and Income Tax. So far every government since the year dot has tried but failed to do this.

There’s a new deal for unemployed young people. Hard on the heels of all the previous failed schemes: YOPS, TOPS, MOPS, etc we now have the “Youth Contract”. The government will pay for a job or apprenticeship for young people, and take away their benefits if they refuse to sign up.

George Osborne was on his feet for about 45 minutes. During this time Labour attempted to convey their disapproval. Miliband tried shaking his head and looking pensive, to no great effect. Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls did it better: he sat there the whole 45 minutes in open-mouthed, blank-faced incredulity at the sheer ineptitude of the government. Then as Osborne commended his Statement to the House and sat down, Balls rose to respond.

It was the usual gloat about how things weren’t going as well as expected and he trotted out his favourite cutting too far too fast message. Since everyone knows his government created the mess in the first place he was never going to get much traction.

So what does it all boil down to? Well, more austerity to start with; making people work longer, harder, for less. Sadly this is probably the right solution to our problems. There isn’t really any alternative.

The government is also stoking up housing. Right-to-buy with a 50% discount is a big, big incentive. The money will then be used to build more houses. There will also be mortgage indemnities for buying new build houses. Whenever a house changes hands there is a lot of ancillary spending: new furnishings, new kitchens and the like. This boosts the economy. However none of the government’s plans blow more air into the housing bubble. The subsidies apply only to new houses, or to houses which were previously in public ownership. This is vital – one of the major causes of our current economic problems was the house price bubble, and nothing should be done which sustains or re-inflates this bubble. Osborne seems to have understood this.

Although Osborne was pretty straight forwards in his presentation; especially compared to the smoke and mirrors we are used to from Gordon Brown, he did fudge a couple of issues. At one point he stated that he would be up-rating pensions and benefits by 5.2% (September’s CPI number) and then said that although this was less than the RPI rise this was OK because inflation was expected to fall in the future. Does he not realise that the up-rating is to compensate for the loss of value in the pension or benefit which has already happened during the past year? Future falls in inflation will not offset the loss of value already incurred – barring actual deflation, which is not on the cards. I’m sure he does understand this; he’s not stupid, but he seemed to think his audience was.

He also fudged the issue of interest rates. He seems to regard keeping them very low as an achievement. He rightly remarked that every 1% rise in the mortgage rate would cost British mortgage payers an extra £10bn, but then went on to claim that thanks to his stewardship of the economy the UK still had its AAA credit rating and was borrowing on the bond markets at the same rate as Germany. In fact the bond rates and the BoE base rate are only very loosely connected. The base rate is 0.5%, and this acts as a base for mortgage rates, while the UK gilt bond rate (10 years) is about 2.3%. The two are not the same and don’t affect each other much. None of the parliamentarians in the House seemed to realise this when he took credit for keeping mortgage rates low.

All in all, Osborne is doing right thing. At least as right as he can get subject to the constraints he operates within. Of course a BNP government could and would create two million jobs pretty much overnight, by deporting immigrants, but the Tories are never going to do that.

GO now has no forecast for when he will stop borrowing and that is a bad thing. Stopping borrowing is a prerequisite for starting to pay down the national debt. We cannot just let the debt grow forever. If we did then one day all government spending would be dedicated to servicing the debt and there would be no public services at all. The government now seems to have settled on a lesser ambition of controlling the debt servicing cost rather than the debt itself. With future GDP growth, with a triple-A credit rating, with a following wind and some luck, they may actually keep the cost of the debt growing more slowly than our national income – which is something, I suppose.

Thursday, 17 November 2011

London schools majority ethnic

Fourteen years ago New Labour came to power and they opened the doors to mass immigration. The effects of this policy were first felt in the maternity wards, then the primary schools, and now the hoards have reached the secondary schools.

Above is the breakdown by borough of non-whites vs whites in London's schools. You can see that across all London the proportion of non-white pupils is 53.6%, up from 40.3% just ten years previously. And, although just published, the data is actually from 2009. Today the swamping will be even greater.

Pity the poor English boy or girl trapped in a classroom in Brent or Tower Hamlets. Their education will be blighted.

Bank of England already thinking about QE 3

Barely have they finished pumping the second round of printed money into the economy, £75bn in all, but the MPC have signalled that QE3 is on the cards.

Quantitative Easing is inflationary, and CPI is currently 5%, more than twice the target of 2%, but Mervyn King thinks he can see deflation ahead.
Sir Mervyn King, the governor, said on Wednesday that “inflation is more likely to be below than above the target” over the next two years, implying that the Bank believes more asset purchases will be necessary. The report’s central forecast shows inflation falling to far below the Bank’s 2 per cent inflation target towards the end of 2013, the forecast horizon the MPC considers when deciding whether or not to conduct further quantitative easing. (Link)
This is all very reassuring. Well, it would be, if back in August 2009 King hadn't said this:
"With Bank rate following the market yield curve and a stock of asset purchases of £175bn, inflation is more likely to be below the target than above it in the medium term." (Link)
So basically he hasn't a clue what he's talking about. Obviously he knows he hasn't a clue, which rather raises the question as to why he's printing money with such gay abandon? Surely, if you're uncertain as to the future, the watchword should be caution?

Apparently not: print and be damned.

(Mervyn King will retire in 2013 with an RPI-linked pension.)

Tuesday, 8 November 2011

Dispatches, the morning after

OK, so Dispatches last night was considerably more frank about who is grooming white girls, and it isn't white boys, than other programmes have been in the past. Journalist Tazeen Ahmad's agenda was showing through quite horribly though. She was desperate to redeem her fellow muslims. She talked to young muslim men who described frankly how they lured under-age white girls into a life of prostitution; starting with gifts, alcohol, drugs before turning nasty and demanding sex, first sex for themselves, then sex for all the men in the group. Ahmad heard that sex with a 13-year-old white girl typically cost about £10, but a virgin could go as high as £30. They're not big spenders, these muslims.

The girls themselves described how they were controlled: failure to perform would result in their mothers' being threatened with gang rape. One girl was anally raped for disobedience.

A horrified Tazeen went on to talk to elders of the muslim community in her search for redemption. One started out alright, by condemning the grooming of young girls before adding as a afterthought that it was actually their fault for dressing too provocatively and being out late at night. Clearly if a girl isn't wearing a burhka she's asking for it.

Eventually Tazeen was able to find a group of muslims who, with just a little prompting, were prepared to stand in front of the camera and say grooming and raping children is wrong.

So with that under her belt Tazeen moved on to considering what should be done about the problem. The policeman from CEOP was useless. He couldn't quite bring himself to say, "It's the muslims what are doing it." Tazeen prompted him several times, but the words wouldn't come out of his mouth.

Tazeen herself had to resort to a little deception to maintain political correctness. During her voiceovers she freely interchanged the terms Pakistani and muslim, before then adding that some white men were perpetrators as well. Are there no white muslims in Tazeen's world? Apparently not. Of course we know that muslims from Eastern Europe are just as involved; immigrants from Albania, Bosnia, Romania, Chechnya, etc. There are also black-as-the-proverbial-ace-of-spades muslims from Somalia - no less guilty.

Tazeen then mused on why these crimes were being committed by Pakistanis particularly (again failing to note that it's muslims, not specifically Pakistanis.) But she couldn't come up with an answer to that question. Well, I'm sure she knows the answer, but she couldn't bring herself to say it out loud on TV: muslims rape under-aged white girls because their religion says they can. The prophet Mohammed enjoyed sexual relations with Aisha when she was nine years old - so why shouldn't his followers do likewise? Mo also enjoined his followers to take the women of the infidels for their own use. The whole religion is a perverts' charter. By their own standards the paedophile groomers are the very models of fine, upstanding believers.

Tazeen asked muslim elders what should be done about the problem. The answers were generally along the lines of, "what problem?" Vague suggestions about better education and telling people that rape is wrong were made! Surely everyone knows this. Strangely no muslim elder, nor the senior policeman, made the practical suggestion that banning the Islamic religion completely, and deporting anyone who defies the ban, would solve the problem.

So, to end, we conclude: Tazeen Ahmad did not duck most of the big questions. When you compare her programme with the episode of Newsnight where they spent the whole hour discussing the problem without once even alluding to the fact that the perpetrators might not all be bowler-hatted, umbrella-totting Englishmen, then Tazeen did good. Probably she did as good as she could. Obviously she doesn't want to completely trash her own religion - even if it must be very embarrassing for her that it's such a repulsive belief system. We must deduct marks for fudging the muslim versus Pakistani issue, but overall, a step in the right direction. I think the public is getting the message, slowly, and not yet the complete message, but we're getting there.

Monday, 7 November 2011

Dispatches, Ch4, tonight - Britain's Sex Gangs

Tonight at 10.30pm the Channel 4 Dispatches team has an hour-long programme on the endemic problem of grooming children for sex. Since the readers of this blog already know all about this, it will be worth watching just to see if they admit that it's muslims who are doing the grooming. On the BBC that would be taboo - on Channel 4 maybe we shall see some frank reporting.

The write-up on the prog is somewhat unpromising; it says...

Research suggests that thousands of children are potentially being sexually exploited by street grooming gangs. This may only be the tip of the iceberg, as experts believe many crimes of this nature go unreported.

Journalist Tazeen Ahmad investigates street grooming and hears from community leaders who say enough is enough and demand action on the issue. She meets victims of grooming and their parents, whose lives have been torn apart.

She hears how girls as young as 12 have been targeted by these gangs and so terrorised and brainwashed that they keep their ordeal secret for years.

In a particularly shocking encounter she talks to two young men who explain in detail how grooming by gangs is perpetrated, why virgins are more highly prized and how the commerce of this type of brutal sexual exploitation unfolds.

Wednesday, 2 November 2011

No to 70 million

Sir Andrew Green, founder of MigrationWatch, has started an epetition to ask parliament to debate the prospect of the UK population reaching 70 million.

All good nationalists should sign this petition. Click here.

Tuesday, 1 November 2011

MF Global gone tits up

Where "tits up" means Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

MF Global is (was?) a brokerage with significant operations in London and New York. They offered client services such as spread betting, savings, investments etc. Crucially though they also invested on their own behalf. This means they were gambling with their money and yours - and somewhere along the line the two seem to have gotten merged.

This can happen if you keep lots of different people's money in the same pot; before you realise it you can't tell which is yours and which is theirs. MF Global seem to have gotten confused and lost all their money followed by all their customers' money.


FSA and SEC asleep at the wheel again, and $40bn (I'm guessing here) has vanished into the ether. Quite what incomprehensible bet they made that went wrong I don't know. But the money is gone.

There was a time when it was illegal to gamble with your money and also keep customer money. But that was a while back. There are still brokerages which don't trade on their own account and arguably these are the only safe ones.

Of course there is some risk of contagion; firms they owe money to also going bust. The coming days will tell.

This is all a bit sub-Lehmans, but still significant.

Monday, 31 October 2011

Seven billion people

The world's seven billionth person was born this morning at 7.20am in Uttar Pradesh, India. She is the daughter of a poor farming family from a small village. Whether Nargis Kumar will now be famous for life, or forgotten by next week, remains to be seen. My money is on the forgotten option.

That said, of course she isn't really the 7,000,000,000th person. No-one can know even to the nearest million how many people there are in the world. In any event she will lose her crown to the eight billionth person in 14 years, in 2025 and then by 2050 we will have the 9th billion and the 10th billion by the end of the 21st century, maybe sooner.

The history of the human race is one of growth and starvation cycles. The population grows, reaches the limit of the land to provide sustenance, and starves until a solution is found and then the population starts to grow again. So human history can be summarised as: breed, starve, invent hunting, breed, starve, invent herding, breed, starve, invent agriculture, breed, starve, invent fishing, breed starve, invent the domestication of animals, breed, starve, invent fertilizer, breed, starve, invent mechanised farming. And that's where we're at right now.

We have been very successful at pushing back the limits of the land; often faster than our population has grown so the starvation phase has been short and even in some places non-existent.

We could probably keep the current geometric growth rate sustained until the end of the 22nd century when the world would host 100bn humans. But the quality of each individual's life would be appallingly low. Even today in 3rd world countries the continual subdivision of land into smaller and smaller blocks by peasant farmers is causing hunger. To progress to the next population level countries like India, China, most of North Africa and the Middle East will need to clear the pastoralists from the land and institute mechanised megafarms. The people will need to be herded into the cities and live like battery chickens themselves. They will be surplus to economic requirements, but will still eat and breed.

In the animal kingdom there is a population growth spectrum which features high quantity low quality at one end and low quantity high quality at the other. This is known as the r/K reproductive strategy spectrum. At the "r" end animals produce a large number of offspring but invest little effort in developing each one, at the "K" end an animal produces a small number of offspring but puts immense pains into nurturing each one.

Human races exhibit a similar dichotomy. Europeans, including their cousins in North America, are slow breeders, even breeding below replacement rate in many European countries but invest inordinately in the education and development of their children. They are breeding for quality. Meanwhile Africans and South Asians breed many more young but invest little in their development. They do this in Africa and Asia, and when they migrate to the Northern Hemisphere they continue the same behavioural patterns, although fortunately for them the state then pays for the investment in their young. (There is also a "chav" class amongst Europeans which breeds fast and invests little, certainly invests little of their own resources, but even they do not approach the breeding rate of Asians and Africans.)

The growth in the world's population is entirely caused by the "r-strategist" ethnic populations. And these populations clearly maintain their habits when they move from the 3rd world to the first world.

This poses an existential threat to the European peoples. The resources of the world will be consumed by the r-strategists. If these rapid breeders were confined to their own areas they would simply expand to fill the carrying capacity of their own lands and then hit the hard limit. However they are largely free to move into the homelands of the K-strategist peoples. Hence the threat.

As the population of the world grows the proportion of that population which is "slow breeder" shrinks. In nature this doesn't happen because the highly nurtured young of the slow breeders compete successfully with the carelessly bred hoards of the fast breeders. But in human affairs this doesn't apply. We move over to make room for the incomers, and they in turn consume our finite resources. Hence we face extinction; not imminently, but eventually.

And after we are extinct, then the fast breeders will also starve, because they live off our productive capacity.

So to save ourselves we must deny the fast breeders access to our lands. They will breed and starve in their own lands, but we must not allow them to come here. And long before actual starvation becomes an issue the quality of our lives in the slow breeding North will be compromised if we continue to welcome and harbour fast breeding migrants.

Try this experiment. Go out onto the streets of any large British city, especially London. Look at the people; not the adults - look at the young in the pushchairs. What ethnic group are they? Are they mainly European? No! You may see equal numbers of European and ethnic adults but the children will mainly be ethnic. Therein lies the problem.

To solve this problem we must be firm on immigration. It must be stopped, and indeed reversed. If this problem isn't dealt with now your children will suffer, your grandchildren will suffer greatly and you won't have any great grandchildren.

Thursday, 27 October 2011

Euro debt crisis meeting in Brussels

Since everyone is getting very excited about the euro debt problem I suppose I should jot down my thoughts.

The story so far...

Yesterday evening our PM, "Dave" Cameron flew to Brussels, met the other HOGs (Heads of Government) of the EU, all 27 were present. He arrived about 5pm, had drinks until 6pm approx, and then settled down to a serious hour's discussion. Then the 17 HOGs from the eurozone went to dinner. But Our Dave wasn't invited to that, he had to go to a less swanky dinner with the 10 non-eurozone HOGs. Misery loves company, and because we've still got sterling we're not miserable enough for the euro HOGs's liking so David had to go and eat at a little table in the corner with the other second class Europeans.

After supper the 17 euro HOGs had more discussions but Dave wasn't invited to those either, so he flew home.

The "problem" can be summarised like this: Greece has €350bn of revolving debt and can't refinance it. If Greece defaults a shed load of French banks will go bust. To stop them going bust Greece must be bailed out, but some of the pain needs to be ladled onto the French banks - only fair. So they will be expected to take a 50% haircut, voluntarily. Why voluntarily? Well, because they long ago took out insurance against Greece defaulting and the providers of the insurance will also go bust if the French banks make a claim. But if it's a "voluntary haircut" then the insurance policies don't apply and the damage is contained. But no one is voluntarily going to give up 50% of what they own, are they? Well, the French banks are majorly reliant on the French government which is propping them up anyway. So pressure can be applied and bankers made to toe the line.

But not all Greek debt is owned by French banks. In fact Greek debt can be, very roughly, divided into three equal parts: 1 - Owned by foreigners, including the French banks, 2 - Owned by the Greek people themselves, for example in their pension funds, and 3 - Owned by Greek banks and other institutions.

So when the Greeks are bailed out anyone who doesn't agree to the voluntary 50% haircut is going to get a massive free ride. Mainly this won't provide much profit for them since they will just get their money back, as opposed to losing it. There is, however, one group who are going to make a killing: American hedge funds.

The hedgies have recently been buying Greek debt at well below cost hoping for just this outcome. They will of course refuse the voluntary haircut and when their short-term bonds mature will demand payment in full, for bonds they bought at a heavy discount. Nice!

ONS projects UK population to be over 70 million by 2027

The ONS says we're going to have about an extra 10 million people in the country in the next 15 or so years; that's an increase of nearly 17% in population size.

Most people find this alarming, mainly because they know there aren't going to be 17% more houses, 17% more road space, 17% more school places, 17% more food grown, 17% more hospital beds, etc.

However this blog is completely sanguine. Yes sir, we don't care if the population goes up to 70 million because we know there are already 75 to 80 million people in the country!

It's the dirty little secret the government won't tell you. The immigrants are already here. It can be worked out from milk and bread consumption numbers from Tescos. Yes, really. The immigrants don't have to fill in paperwork if they don't want to, but they still eat.

Of course, this blog is extremely concerned that another 10 million are coming. (This includes breeding by immigrants already here - second generation immigrants); concerned because of the above resource constraints, and because there isn't the land available to building new roads, houses and make new farms. But also concerned because we know what kind of people these immigrants will be: violent and dangerous criminals!

Not all of them of course. But they will be members of the ethnic groups prone to being bad neighbours and a disproportionate number of them, including the ones born here, will be criminally inclined.

There is really no good reason to allow our country to be swamped with incomers. The benefits they bring are microscopically small (literally, in the case of the diseases they carry) and the downside blindingly obvious: look no further than the London Sharia zone, or August's riots.

Erasing the stain on our justice system

Justice Secretary Ken Clarke is all over the media touting his sentencing reforms. The big headline he's looking for is: mandatory life for second serious crime!

So if you almost kill someone twice you go to prison for "life". Not life, just "life" which is a bit shorter - usually about 15 years. And it's "mandatory", the judge has to make the sentence "life", unless he thinks it would be unjust, in which case he doesn't have to. So that's OK then. Do judges routinely apply sentences they consider unjust? No, they don't. So the effect of this two-strikes and you're out rule is... not a lot. But the headlines are good.

Our Ken makes the very valid point that the only reason so many crims are escaping the mandatory "life" sentence for murder is that the doctors are getting good at keeping people alive, even if they are vegetables thereafter. And for murder it's real mandatory "life" - the judge has no choice after a jury has pronounced "guilty of murder" - although it's not real life, just the somewhat shorter "life". (The main effect is to be on parole for the rest of your life after release.) The mandatory bit is real though; no judge's discretion when it's murder.

But the good bit in Ken's reforms are buried in the small print. He's abolishing indeterminate sentences. These sentences allow a judge to say, "You're going to jail and we'll let you out when we feel like it." They are an abomination contrary to all natural justice, introduced of course by the last Labour government who had no qualms about kicking over the pillars of justice.

Crimes should be matched to punishments. The punishment can then be scaled by aggravating and mitigating aspects of the crime; time off for pleading guilty, time off for trying to make restitution; time off for genuine remorse (like turning yourself in before being caught) and time added for abusing a position of trust or picking on a particularly vulnerable person.

The punishment should never be open-ended, simply because all citizens are equal before the law, and rightly expect to be treated equally. A punishment lottery is not justice.

Ken Clarke has called indeterminate sentences a "stain on our justice system," and now he has abolished them. Way to go Ken! If only you were sound on Europe you'd be Prime Minister by now.

Monday, 24 October 2011

August rioters mainly ethnic

From the Daily Telegraph we have a statement of the bleeding obvious. Apparently the August rioters were disproportionately black or brown. Well, who would have guessed that?

The exact numbers are:

In terms of ethnicity, 46 per cent of those appearing in court were from black or mixed black backgrounds, 42 per cent were white and seven per cent were Asian.

So that's 52% black or Asian. And these people account for only 10% at most of our population. Think what fun we'll have when they are the majority of the population, currently forecast for around 2050.

The 42% white will of course contain a large proportion of Eastern European immigrants. How many? No-one can really say.

There's a missing 5% in the numbers above. Oriental? Eskimo? No idea!

Friday, 21 October 2011

It ends in a hole in the ground

At the height of WWII, Adolf Hitler ruled Europe from the English Channel in the West to the Urals in the East; from the Baltic in the North to the Mediterranean in the South. Then a couple of years later he took his own life in a bunker under Berlin.

Saddam Hussein was absolute ruler of Iraq for a quarter of a century. He was eventually found hiding in a dugout with a camping stove and some cans of soup, and was later hanged.

Colonel Gaddafi governed Libya for 42 years but yesterday was found hiding in a drainage culvert measuring three feet across. He was pulled out but died a couple of hours later in disputed circumstances.

What is it about dictators and holes in the ground?

Wednesday, 19 October 2011

Government about to be devious

So, yesterday we had September's inflation numbers, CPI 5.2% and RPI 5.6%. April next year these numbers will be used to uprate a whole raft of taxes and benefits. In theory...

But there are early signs that George Osborne is about to pull a fast one. To start with they will increase business rates by the higher index, RPI, and get in another £1.35bn in taxes. Then, in theory, they should increase benefits such as the state pension, child benefit, job seeker's, and the tax thresholds by the lower index, CPI. This is already rather devious - using two different indexes depending on whether they are giving or taking, but indications are they are going to try to avoid handing out the full 5.2% which would cost them £1.8bn in extra spending. They may use a lower number on the spurious grounds that the September number is an "aberration".

This is devious, but not necessarily a bad idea. Government spending is itself stoking inflation. Uprating spending below inflation would be unpleasant for those living on government handouts, and not so nice for taxpayers who don't get the full indexation of their allowances, but it could be virtuous in that it would make inflation fall.

At the end of November, in the Autumn statement, we will see if Osborne has the gonads to try this one on.

£250K prize if you can work out how to leave the euro

This blog has over the last few months outlined a couple of ways of leaving the euro, including the "orderly exit" and the "emergency exit". (Probably only Germany could get away with using the orderly exit, everyone else would need to head for the emergency exit.)

And now there's a prize if you can work out how a country could leave the euro. Lord Wolfson, CEO of Next, has put up a quarter of a million quid for anyone who can figure out how the deed should be done. Actual admin of the prize will be by the Policy Exchange think-tank.

This is slightly weird. Is he desperate or something?

Tuesday, 18 October 2011

Inflation numbers for September are scarey

Inflation numbers for September out today...

CPI: 5.2%, up from 4.9% in August
RPI: 5.6%, up from 5.4% in August

But that isn't the scarey bit. No, here's the scarey bit...

Gas and electricity prices are up 9.9% in a single month!

Of course the Bank of England expects inflation to fall back to the target 2% within two years. That said, two years ago they expected today's numbers to be on target.

Here's the fan chart the BoE issued two years ago...

...nicely annotated by FreeTrader at HPC. The big red arrow shows the actual number compared with the fan which shows their expectation.

As you can see, their forecasting is crap. The BoE basically talks a load of balls.

Wednesday, 12 October 2011

Slovaks kill the euro stone dead

Alright, not the euro, just the bailout. Or rather the expansion to the bailout. The Slovaks have handed over the original €4bn they were asked for, but then yesterday the Slovak parliament voted against the next €7.7bn they are supposed to contribute to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). They understandably balked at handing money over to Greece; Slovakia is actually a lot poorer than Greece. The average wage in Slovakia is about the same as the legal minimum wage in Greece.

So that's the bailout dead then. It has to be unanimous, and one of the 17 members of euroland has said no, or more traditionally, non.

But of course this is a European vote. When you get it wrong in a European vote you're given another go. In fact you can have as many votes as you like, until you vote the right way. So in a few days the Slovak parliament will vote again and is expected to do the decent thing and hand over their cash to the Greeks (well, actually the French banks in hoc to Greece) like good little Europeans.

The Slovaks seem to have taken article 125 of the Lisbon Treaty somewhat too literally...

Article 125: The Union shall not be liable for or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of any Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project. A Member State shall not be liable for or assume the commitments of central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of another Member State, without prejudice to mutual financial guarantees for the joint execution of a specific project.

See? It doesn't say you can't bail out banks.

Leader of the Refuseniks, Richard Sulik, explains his position to Der Spiegel here.

Birmingham City Council gets AAA credit rating

There's a whole new debt bubble being born right now. At the moment it's just the tiniest little globule of a bubble. Birmingham City Council has got itself a credit rating, and, thanks to the implicit support of Her Majesty's Government, it's a magnificent triple-A. Yes, folks, BCC rates higher than Uncle Sam with AAA from Moody's and AA+ from Standard and Poors.

So like a kid accidentally locked in the sweet shop after hours, Birmingham now has access to the bond markets. They go can out into the world and borrow for Britain. There will be no limit to the dizzy heights the Chief Exec's salary can now rise to.

I wonder how this will pan out? Perhaps we should take a peek across the pond for a glimpse of the future. US municipal bonds, how are they working out? All hunky-dory? Er, no. There's a ten percent default rate.

But in fact, that's not the real problem. The real problem is when that AAA starts to slide. (Ask any Greek.) When bonds mature they have to be repaid. This usually involves issuing new bonds to finance the repayment of the old bonds. But, oh dear, we're not AAA anymore, we're only AA, or B, or merely "investment grade" so we'll need to offer more and more to the bond markets to get our cash. Thus the screw is turned on the captive taxpayers. They're on a treadmill and they can't get off.

There is another way of borrowing. Councils can go to HM Treasury and ask for a loan. It's a tad more expensive than a AAA bond would be, but it's a fixed rate. It doesn't rely on a credit rating. The taxpayers of Birmingham would be better advised to borrow from HMG; better the devil you know.

Frankly, we just don't need a whole new layer of debt in this country.

Monday, 10 October 2011

Edwina Curry off Strictly

Last night former MP Edwina Curry was voted off Strictly Come Dancing.

Although strictly speaking, that happened Saturday night since they record the results show straight after the Saturday evening show and then pretend it's the next day.

Ola Jordan: not relevant to this post

Edwina wasn't the lowest scored contestant but got voted out anyway.

This is good, because now she realises that nobody likes her.


In fact we have reasons to be grateful in the whole "catflap" affair. (Some people are calling it catgate, but that's missing an obvious punning opportunity.)

The story starts in an ordinary, everyday, kind of a way. A 27-year-old Bolivian student completes his studies in the UK and rather than obey the terms of his visa and go home, he stays and gets a job - illegally.

Of course the authorities don't notice. They never do. No-one checks people out of the country. We just trust them to go when they should.

So, anyway, Bolivian guy, Camilo Soria Avila is his name, is sitting pretty, can probably stay for life if he wants, but, oh dear, gets caught nicking clothes from Debenhams. No surprise here. Illegal immigrants are nicking stuff every day of the week. Cops called. Do they arrest him, take him away, put him before a court, even check his immigration status? Nope, none of that. They give him caution and send him on his way.

Again so far, so normal.

But finally the creaky old justice system splutters into life just enough to realise they've given a criminal record to someone who shouldn't even be here. Barely a year later they've started legal proceedings to get him deported.

And this is where the story departs from the norm. If Snr Avila had been any normal illegal immigrant he would have got some local girl pregnant by now and be wailing that trying to deport him would damage his children beyond repair. Trouble is Avila isn't inclined to take that route. You see, he's a sexual invert. Not into girls. No siree. No kiddies for him. No tearful children to parade before the courts. What to do? Aha! Cunning plan... get a cat!

It's the perfect politically-correct family: Maya the cat, and her two daddies. Bingo! He's got a cat m'lud! Home free! Permanent leave to remain in the UK.

To be fair, it must be mentioned that Avila won his court case on more than just the cat. The authorities bungled the paperwork as well. But, that's par for the course. You can more-or-less count on that.

And we come at last to the good news. There's never going to be the pitter-patter of tiny illegal immigrant feet in the Avila household. You're never going to be forking out for a mini-Bolivian's education or medical bills or child benefit.

So, a silver-lining, surely?

Panorama and Nationalist infighting

A long build-up of Nationalist infighting will come to a head tonight, at 8:30pm, when BBC1 broadcasts the Panorama programme "BNP: The Fraud Exposed". This is billed as follows:

Nick Griffin's British National Party, already under investigation for breaches of electoral law, is facing fresh allegations of corruption. Panorama uncovers new evidence of financial documents being falsified and fabricated in order to deceive the Electoral Commission. The programme also has evidence of the BNP's failure to declare major donations to the party.

As Darragh MacIntyre reports, the BNP, which is better known for its controversial views on race, is in debt and according to its own published accounts appears to be technically insolvent.

Sadly British Nationalism seems to have factionalised into about three different groups, each feuding with the others. In one corner you have the British National Party itself; still run by its recently re-elected (by a tiny margin) chairman, Nick Griffin, MEP. The BNP has been hemorrhaging members, down to about 10,000 from a peak of 14,000, and is in severe financial difficulties. It is fighting legal battles on several fronts: notably from suppliers who haven't been paid and former members of staff seeking wages owed to them and compensation for wrongful dismissal. The BNP's continued existence is genuinely in doubt.

In the next corner you have Andrew Brons, MEP. Yes, the BNP's second member of the European Party is now feuding with the party chairman. The battle is being fought online here. Andrew Brons challenged Griffin for leadership of the party a couple of months ago, but failed by just a few votes.

And there is another corner. It's called Britain First. It's not a political party; it calls itself a "movement". It's actually constituted as a not-for-profit limited liability company. At the moment its long term plans are not very clear. It's just recruiting members, running roadshows and generally raising its profile. So far there is no mention of selecting candidates and standing in elections. However, it's pretty clear this group is intended as an heir apparent waiting in the wings for the death of the British National Party. The BNP portrays Britain First as a simple money-making scam whose sole purpose is to obtain donations from concerned patriots casting around for some life-raft organisation to cling to. The BF on the other hand treats the BNP as a dinosaur about to become extinct - it criticises the Party while being careful to avoid criticising the members, who it wishes to recruit.

Prominent amongst the members of Britain First is one Jim Dowson. He has been mentioned before on this blog. He was employed by the BNP as a fundraiser and he was quite effective at that. However, he was never a member of the BNP, he had no ideological commitment. He was a hireling, not a supporter. Prior to his association with the BNP he raised funds for anti-abortion campaigns, mainly in Ireland. He's from Northern Ireland. It was at his initiative that the BNP set up a call centre in Belfast. Now it seems he has draped himself in the flag and is calling himself a Nationalist.

Other founder members of Britain First used to be senior members and employees of the BNP. They seem, mainly, to be united in a dislike of Nick Griffin.

There's no denying that Griffin has fallen down on the job of leading the BNP. The main problem is the Party finances. Griffin has acquired a reputation as a poor money manager. The accounts for 2009 were submitted late to the Electoral Commission and were qualified by the Auditors. A significant payment of around £40,000 to an individual has been denied by the individual in question, which raises the issue of where has that money gone. The Party made a loss of nearly £60,000 on the year (though compared to the loss of around £200,000 in 2008 this could be viewed as an improvement.) As the Party has no formal overdraft facilities these loses are simply unpaid bills to suppliers and unpaid wages to staff. This inevitably breeds resentment and even fear; fear among the senior staff that they may be held personally liable for the debts. The Party has no limited liability. Not surprisingly, many of them have left.

And the accounts for last year, 2010, have not yet been filed. They are already three months overdue. The suspicion must be that the Party is bankrupt but Griffin doesn't want to admit it.

This is the basic premise that Panorama will advance tonight; that the BNP is bankrupt. The Party itself has not cooperated in the making of the programme, mainly because of the BBC's past record of undercover filming, which led most notably to chairman Nick Griffin and then Director of Publicity Mark Collette's trial at Leeds Crown Court on charges of promoting racial hatred, charges of which they were entirely exonerated it must be recalled.

Meanwhile over in the Britain First corner, they have been collaborating with the BBC; somewhat to their own distaste because the BBC is not loved in Nationalist circles, but they seem determined to deal a fatal blow to the BNP.

Tonight we will find out if they have been successful.

Thursday, 6 October 2011

QE2 is launched today

Today, at lunch time, the Bank of England announced the second round of quantitative easing. This time £75bn is to be squirted into the economy.

Here's how they broach the subject...

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to maintain the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to increase the size of its asset purchase programme, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £75 billion to a total of £275 billion.

Readers of this blog will doubtless be delighted to see the phrase financed by the issuance of central bank reserves in the statement. It's reassuring to know the BoE has this kind of cash just lying around in the vaults. Otherwise, they'd have to print it - and that would be highly inflationary.

And we don't want more inflation. We've already got CPI at 4.5%, more than twice the 2% target, and a rise to 5% is "baked in" due to higher costs coming down the line at us.

Fortunately high inflation isn't a problem. As the Bank says here...

The deterioration in the outlook has made it more likely that inflation will undershoot the 2% target in the medium term. In the light of that shift in the balance of risks, and in order to keep inflation on track to meet the target over the medium term, the Committee judged that it was necessary to inject further monetary stimulus into the economy.

So it seems they expect inflation to fall dramatically in the "medium term" which generally means two years.

In other news today the NHS announced it has discovered a cure for high blood pressure. All patients with a reading of 140/90 or higher will have a 9mm shell "injected" into their hearts, which will cause their BP to fall to 0/0 immediately.

Yes, you can kill an economy, but it's not normally considered the right way to cure inflation.

Thursday, 29 September 2011

Barroso wants to impose transaction tax

It had to happen sooner or later. In fact it was predicted in this very blog months ago. The EU, in the form of Commission President José Manuel Barroso, has decided the best way to solve the internal contradictions of economic union, is to have even more economic union, oh, and a new tax.

Let's start with the tax. Barroso wants to skim 0.05% off every bank to bank transaction in Europe. He thinks this will help solve the problem of Greece being about to crash out of the euro. Or least, he implies it might. This tax (sometimes known as a Tobin Tax) would provide a big cash pile that could be used to bail out banks and countries when it all goes tits up. (The original Tobin Tax was only to be applied to foreign exchange conversions - Barroso wants to tax all transactions.)

Hmm... a big cash pile? A big cash pile doubtless to be collected and administered by the EU itself; and doled out by the EU to its friends and supporters. You can see why Barroso would want such a thing. Some people reckon this tax could raise as much as €50bn a year; enough to give a commission president sweaty palms just thinking about it.

Some of that money would sadly be coming out of yours and mine pockets in the form of higher banking charges. But on the plus side, some would also be coming out of bankers' bonuses and bank profits. So, not all bad then.

The tax would put paid to a devious practice of the big investment banks - high speed trading (HST). In HST the bank, using "co-located" computers, ie computers it has paid to have hosted in a stock exchange's own computer room so that they can talk extremely fast to the SE's own computers, intervenes in every transaction. For example if you decide to buy some Sainsbury's shares and tell your broker to buy 1000 shares "at best" but not paying more than £3 per share you will find that a high speed trader suddenly bids the price up to £3 just long enough for you to have to pay the maximum you were willing to go to. They do this by trading thousands of times for your one and discovering your price limit and corralling the whole market for a millisecond or two. They might buy and sell a million Sainsbury shares just to make sure you pay £3 rather than £2.90 for yours. But a tax on each transaction would spoil their fun. Suddenly their thousand trades would be costing them a lot of money.

There has been speculation that a financial transaction tax (FTT) would drive business offshore. Probably not much: the ordinary Joe Public punter wouldn't be much affected, and the parasitic banks need to be close to the public in order to prey on them. Some business might move from London to New York - large deals where the FTT starts to add up to a big number.

Barroso's other big idea is deeper economic union. By this he means the EU should be running the economies of member states, because obviously they're not competent to do it themselves. This means member state treasury departments would have to clear all spending with the EU beforehand, and of course, all borrowing as well. Our democracy would degenerate into an elected civil service - chosen by the people but taking their orders from Brussels.

However, since the UK isn't in the euro, it's unlikely the FTT or the further economic union will ever apply to us. If the rest of Europe wants it, let them have it.

Wednesday, 28 September 2011

Gypsy problems in Bulgaria

It seems it's not only us who have "traveller" issues. Near the Bulgarian second city of Plovdiv conflict on the scale of a small war had broken out. The Gypsy "King" Kiro had someone killed and next thing you know 3,000 outraged local residents have marched on his house and tried to run him out of town.

Violence against gypsies then spread to other cities. The prime minister Georgi Parvanov deployed special police units and there have been 120 arrests.

This makes our problems at Dale Farm look small beer in comparison.

Perhaps the most interesting thing about all this is that our mainstream media isn't reporting it at all. To learn more you will have to visit Pravda.

Thursday, 22 September 2011

Twist and shout

The yanks have a cunning plan. It's called Operation Twist. They will sell $400bn worth of short-term gilts and use the money to buy the same value in long-term bonds.

The thing to remember about bonds is the yield goes up when the price comes down, and vice-versa. So when they buy the long-term bonds this will cause a price increase, hence a yield fall.

So what they are going is making long-term interest rates lower, at the cost of making short-term interest rates higher. Apparently short-term money is plenty cheap enough, but they want firms to have access to some long-term cheap money because investing in growth is a long-term thing.

I suppose it will work, a bit.

Of course when the short-term bonds they've sold mature they'll have to sell the long-term bonds to fund redeeming them and the whole operation will reverse itself. But at least it's cash neutral and so not inflationary.

The madness of QE2

It's coming... Yesterday's MPC minutes showed a nine-to-zero majority in favour of holding the base rate at its laughable 0.5%, and worse, hints that that their next move may be another round of quantitative easing.

The last round of QE in March 2009 involved printing £200 billion and injecting it into the UK economy. The net effect is thought to be 2% GDP growth. GDP is about £1.4 trillion per year so they "spent" 14% of GDP to gain a 2% boost. Of course it wasn't really "they" who did the spending, it was us - we are paying for the £200bn QE in the form of higher inflation. Money derives its value from its scarcity. Make it less scarce and it loses value. Every time you buy an inflated loaf of bread you're paying your share of that £200bn. You will be paying for many years to come; long after the QE boost has gone away.

And now they're thinking about doing it again.

Also revealed yesterday is the fact the government borrowed £13.8bn last month. That's two billion more than the same month last year. This from a government which claims to be cutting the deficit.

It must be admitted that the main problem for the exchequer last month was lower than expected income tax receipts, so they may be cutting spending, but the effect is to reduce the tax yield by more. We're in danger of falling into the Greek tax trap here - a vicious circle of cutting spending causing tax yield to fall thus requiring even more spending cuts.

Presumably the mega-brains in HM Treasury have seen the problem looming, and thus the urge to print has returned. The printed money would of course be used to finance government borrowing - indirectly by buying gilts on the open market. Unfortunately printing money is another trap. It's a quick dose of neat sugar. First the glucose high, followed by the need for even more to sustain our energy levels: QE causes price inflation, people can afford to buy less stuff, businesses suffer and employ fewer people. (Did I mention unemployment has just hit a recent high of 2.5 million?)

The right answer of course is to get inflation down. The whole aim of government economic policy should always be: non-inflationary growth. Growth at the price of inflation is not worth having. You feel good today but even worse tomorrow. And to get this non-inflationary growth they will need to raise the base rate - taking the pain on the chin - until inflation is squeezed out of the system and people's real, after-inflation, spending power starts to go up. Then businesses will find sales rising, revenues increasing, and will hire more people and the whole economy will splutter back into life.

But of course that does mean taking some short-term pain. And they've prevaricated for so long that the pain will be significant. A rise in base rates will cause more unemployment, a fall in house prices, and will suck in imported goods which will seem cheaper. But there is no real alternative. A Nationalist government could deal with the unemployment issue by removing immigrants. This government wouldn't of course. And if they keep hitting the sugar we'll find out what an economy in a diabetic coma looks like.

Thursday, 15 September 2011

Oil in the Falklands

Oil prospector Rockhopper has announced an interesting oil find in the Falkland Islands waters. They reckon they'll be able to extract $40bn worth of oil from under the sea.

Argentina is hopping mad. Their simple logic is: the Falklands (Malvinas) belong to them, therefore the oil also belongs to them. No British oil company should be digging it up.

And this is just a little, early-day find. There could be a vast amount more oil. The islands could be sitting on a trillion dollars worth of the stuff.

So one has to ask. Is this a good time for the UK to have no aircraft carriers at all capable of launching fighters?

Monday, 12 September 2011

Freedom go to hell; democracy go to hell

During yesterday's commemorations for the 9/11 victims outside the American Embassy the minute's silence was filled with chanting muslims. The following slogans can be discerned...

Freedom go to hell
Democracy go to hell
Down, down USA
USA, you will pay
The muslims are on their way
USA terror state

Watch a video from the Telegraph here. (The BBC don't seem to have covered it.)

Greece cannot survive

The Greek economy is effectively dead! Not legally dead, but effectively it's a gonner. Short-term Greek debt yields on the open market have just reached 100%. That means the cost of borrowing one million euros for the Greeks is: one million euros. That's the market's way of saying, "Don't bother asking."

The Greeks are still chowing down on bailout money from the EU, but this comes with strings attached. The Germans are demanding "Austerity". But the Greeks tried austerity, and they found that for every euro of spending they saved their economy shrank by enough to cut their tax base by a euro. So there was no gain.

They're like a man standing in quicksand with the Germans on the sidelines shouting, "Run!" But the man in quicksand knows that he's only sinking  slowly at the moment; if he were to start running he'd sink a lot faster and be dead a lot sooner.

So all that remains is for Germany to gather the relatives, make a short but moving speech, and pull the plug on Greece's life-support.

In this case "pulling the plug" means either Greece leaving the Eurozone, or having its sovereignty revoked and being run by Germans. It's a tough call which way the Germans will jump on this one. Either way though, the future for the average Greek on the street is penury.

Wednesday, 7 September 2011

NS&I have pulled their savings certificates

Boo hoo! Savers across the UK are in mourning. The only savings account that actually kept up with inflation (ie was a savings account rather than a losings account) has closed. National Savings & Investments have stopped sales of their 5-year, RPI+0.5 pa, tax-free certificates. Yesterday you could have had £15,000 worth of these little treasures - today you can't.

Meanwhile bankers everywhere are celebrating. They hated NS&I for offering the saving public a good deal, alright, an adequate deal.

The deal has been pulled only four months after it was first offered. The two billion pounds the government wanted to raise has been raised. The rest of the £120bn deficit will come from gilts instead. The government seems to have decided that raising money this way will be cheaper for them.

Yes, paying 3.5% on gilts will be cheaper for the government over five years than paying RPI+0.5%. Can you work out what the government actually thinks is going to happen to inflation over the next five years? (As opposed to the "return to the 2% target over the next two years" mantra they normally chant.)

Monday, 5 September 2011

Police to commute in uniform

The Policy Exchange "think tank" has come up with the whizzy idea that police officers should commute to and from work in uniform. Apparently in London alone at least 2,000 officers are in mid-commute at peak times and they would provide more visible reassurance to the public and deterrence to wrong-doers if they travelled in uniform.

But even if we over-look the fact that people commuting are on their own time so can't sensibly be told how to dress, do we really want the consequences that wearing a uniform in personal time entails?

An officer leaves work; he's had a hard day, decides to have a pint in the local pub. Now you've an officer drinking in uniform. Decides he'll have a cigarette so pops outside. Now you've got an officer in uniform out in the street drinking and smoking. A friend calls him. Now he's outside drinking, smoking, and having an obviously personal call on his phone. A load of colleagues turn up; they also have a pint and smoke and raucous conversation ensues. Meanwhile the public walks past muttering disapprovingly at this gang of uniformed officers letting their hair down.

One of the officers decides he's a bit hot and opens his jacket and takes his tie off. Now he's in uniform but not in uniform. Is that even allowed?

The first officer finishes his pint then has a couple more. Fair to say he's a bit tipsy now. He decides he's had enough and walks off home. He's not breaking the law. Being drunk is not illegal. Drunk and Disorderly is, but not just drunk. He's fully entitled to be drunk in his own time.

While walking home a street crime happens. Our man is still in uniform. Everyone in the street is looking at him; he must intervene. He grabs the hoodlum who has just run out of an off-license without paying for a bottle of cider. It's a local homeless man. Now what's our officer to do? No handcuffs; no Airwave radio; no way to call for a van or for assistance. His mobile? Oops battery's dead! "Someone call 999," he shouts to the world at large.

Now the hoodlum is beginning to realise this arrest isn't going like all previous arrests. This officer doesn't have kit, or colleagues. The hoodlum pulls out a knife. Where is our officer's stab-proof vest? Back in his locker at the station is the answer; along with his CS gas spray, his ASP, and his cuffs. The cuffs he could take home with him, possibly the ASP (truncheon) as well. The gas, no, must be kept in a locked box when not in use.

How does this story end? However you like. Maybe the officer subdues the criminal without taking an injury. But then it goes to court. In the witness box the officer is obliged to admit he'd had quite a bit to drink when he made the arrest. The defence brief suggests that maybe his judgement was impaired at the time. He's forced to admit it could have been.

Or maybe he does get stabbed and the hoodlum runs off. Hopefully there are members of the public around to call for help, because the station doesn't know there's an officer down; they won't even begin to miss him until the start of his next shift.

This blogger reckons that police commuting in uniform is a can of worms best left closed.

Dale Farm riots scheduled

Major conflict is timetabled for the week after next; starting the 19th September to be precise. That's when police from all over the country will converge to effect the eviction of the 1,000 or so members of the Irish Travelling community illegally resident at Dale Farm in Basildon, Essex.

Dale Farm

Converging from the opposite direction will be hoards of loony-left trouble-makers intent on a good ruck as they attempt to defend the Travellers. This blog understands that defences are being built right now: tyre mountains, oil-soaked haystacks waiting to be set on fire, broken glass scattered to impede police vehicles. Meanwhile the local council are preparing bulldozers and earth-moving equipment to destroy all the illegally-built houses.

Strange, isn't it, that Travellers are only controversial when they stop travelling? They should take to the roads again, preferably the roads leading to County Limerick in Ireland, where they all come from.

Friday, 2 September 2011

Beeb showing gay porn

From the gaps between your fingers consider the image below...

Two men: shagging

It depicts two men; on a bed; both naked; having sex. It was shown on BBC1 Thursday last week; in a children's programme!

The programme was Torchwood. It's a spin-off from, and an anagram of, Doctor Who - the children's show first broadcast in the early 1960s. In the same family you also have The Sarah Jane Adventures. But a family programme it clearly is not.

What are the BBC thinking of broadcasting this unsuitable material? The audience consisted mainly of children; of the rest only about one or two percent may have been homosexual men who enjoyed the scene, the rest of us were just revolted.

The BBC is not doing it unknowingly. It's not a case of, "Oops some gay porn snuck into that programme; we just don't know how that could have happened!" No, it's there with malice aforethought.

It's there for a reason. And it's shown to children for a reason. Adults mainly have fully developed critical faculties. Show them something they find abhorrent and they'd just be disgusted. Children on the other hand are still open to persuasion. Show them something in a normal context and they will come to accept it as normal. Their minds are still malleable - for good or evil. And the BBC has decided that a perverse act, one that confounds nature and is an abomination in all religions should be inserted into the minds of children as normal.

There is a reason they want children to consider homosexual intercourse normal. It's part of a much bigger picture. They actually want all forms of self-gratification and licentiousness to be considered normal. At the moment this is as far as they dare go, and ten years ago they wouldn't have dared even this much. A decade in the future they will have pushed the boundaries of decency further: they'll be showing paedophilia; drug taking; public sex; drunkenness - all as quite normal and "approved of" by the lead character of the programme.

They aim to create a generation of children who grow up believing in no personal standards at all; having no self-respect, no boundaries.


It's because the programme-makers are perverts and our children are being groomed as their future victims.

Tuesday, 30 August 2011

Blacks behaving better

The Notting Hill Carnival is over for another year. As usual Sunday was tame; the Monday less so. One million black people gathered in a couple of square miles of London, just north of Hyde Park, in fact a very posh and expensive area, and the air was thick with the smoke from frying chicken and the sound of truck-sized ghetto blasters. A smattering of white people were also present; including this blogger.

The dress code was "Jamaican" and flesh was displayed this season. Mainly corpulent flesh clearly fed on too much fried chicken.

The authorities are reporting the carnival as a great success with practically no criminal behaviour. Police top brass are colluding in this - they have everything to gain from playing along with the fiction that this year was much calmer than previous years.

And actually it was. The police operation only cost £4 million; only 5,000 officers were deployed into the carnival zone, some from as far away as Northumbria; only 200 arrests were made; only one member of the public got stabbed. The Dail Mail have a remarkable picture of that event.

Stabbist flees as member of public tries to trip him up!

Also one woman police officer got stabbed, below her protective vest (ouch!). However this may have happened a few yards outside the Carnival Zone since the police are not reporting it as a "carnival" incident. This blog understands she is not badly hurt. The media is not reporting the event.

Carnival-goer chats with police

Very few of the well-heeled residents of Notting Hill were in evidence. Presumably over the years they have learned to leave town for the last weekend in August.

Old lady watches aghast as 1000 decibel truck goes passed her street

As the day wore on mounds of discarded fried chicken and associated polystyrene packaging accumulated at every street corner. Mayor Boris dropped in to tell the TV cameras what fun everyone was having. The Met Acting-Commissioner didn't feel the inclination to drop by.

And only an hour or so after this blogger decided to leave he managed to reach the edge of the zone through a sea of dancing bodies and catch a train home.

There's a parade there somewhere, you just have to look closely

Today the locals will be returning from wherever they fled. Shopkeepers will be unboarding their windows, and the council will be shoveling away the carpet of trash left behind by the revellers. (By way of contrast, should you ever attend a BNP event try to find, just one, item of litter left behind by the participants!)

If the NHC were judged against a normal benchmark; if the sound levels were considered in absolute terms; if the organisers were required to pay the true costs of policing and clean-up, like they are at concerts, football matches and the like, then the NHC would be considered abject failure and would be unaffordable anyway.

But considering what it could have turned out like - it was a success.

Saturday, 20 August 2011

Blacks behaving badly

Dr David Starkey, Tudor historian and sharp-suited homosexual, is in hot water. His faux pas is to have blamed last week’s riots on “Black culture” while speaking on BB2’s Newsnight programme.

On air he said that Enoch Powell was right in his Birmingham speech: that the black man would have the whip hand over the white man. He went on to claim that black "gangsta" culture was responsible for the riots in London and Manchester: whether carried out by blacks or whites. For this outspoken behaviour no lesser figure than the Leader of the Opposition David Milliband, a Jew of immigrant stock, called him, “Racist, frankly.”

David Starkey: Enoch was right

Dr Starkey must feel like he has been savaged by a rubber sheep.

A contributor to the Daily Telegraph letters’ page went so far as to remark: “How can we stop this outrageous fellow continually blurting out the truth?”

But is it true? Is culture to blame?

At first blush the answer would have to be yes. Black male youths swim in a sea of lawlessness, encouraged by their peers; their rap music; their idols, and their nuclear families having mainly broken down – black fathers in the UK are distinguished by their absence – by their postcode gangs which act as both family and employer, giving them purpose, money (through drug dealing), status and a career path.

Some white youths have also bought into this culture. They have also joined the gangs. Born into gang-dominated areas they have seen the writing on the wall and decided that being a victimiser rather than a victim would be the better option. They speak the Jafrican patois like natives and blend in all save skin colour.

But one must ask: where did this culture come from? And would young black males behave any differently if it didn’t exist?

All the evidence seems to be that black culture is a product of the black race. Blacks create a culture which endorses the values they hold. In the USA, black-dominated inner cities: South-Central Los Angeles; Detroit; others too numerous to mention, are crime-infested Hell-holes. The black nations of sub-Saharan Africa are lawless in the extreme. South Africa is an object lesson: transitioning from white-ruled to black-ruled it descended from law-abiding, prosperous and safe, to the murder capital of the world, financed only by an ever-shrinking white population. When the whites are all gone it will be Zimbabwe in all but name.

Wherever blacks dominate so lawlessness and violence prevails. In America, in Europe, in Africa, in the Caribbean, the story is the same. Whatever cultural values they inherit from a civilising power they lose when that power withdraws. There are no exceptions.

So I would have say: Dr Starkey is actually wrong. Culture isn’t the cause of the behaviour; culture is a product of the behaviour. Black culture endorses black behaviour. Their Rap music tells them the story they wish to hear: that they are not the dregs of society; that they are not underachievers; that violent acquisition is right; that women are whores worthy of no respect; that the only reason they don’t have the good things in life is because white people are oppressing them.

Doubtless deep down they know they are being told a lie. But to deny the lie would be to accept their own criminal, unemployable, worthlessness; so it’s a lie they accept willingly.

That said, possibly for many of them, there is no such thing as “deep down”. Their thoughts are shallow and tenuous. They follow the herd; they gratify their urges; their lives are not complex. As individuals they are mainly harmless and rather inadequate. But in gangs they become irrational and violent. People with experience of Africa speak of how a group of Africans will make the transition. They start as an inoffensive collection of individuals. Then dancing breaks out. A menacing sort of dance called toy-toying which serves to bond the group. They work themselves into a frenzy. Then savagery; random violence, necklace killings and the like follows.

This has been their lives for millennia. It would be unreasonable to expect them to have changed fundamentally in the course of a couple of centuries.

We don’t have blacks behaving badly to this degree in the UK – yet.

The proponents of “culture not race” will of course point to the many white participants in the riots. The London and Birmingham riots were mainly black, but in Manchester were mainly white. This could be taken to argue for a cultural rather than racial cause.

However we should note these were copy-cat riots. The whole thing started in Tottenham, London, when, after an exchange of gun-fire, black gangster Mark Duggan wound up dead. There was clearly a major police operation to arrest Duggan, CO19 – the fire arms command, and Operation Trident – the black-on-black gun-crime unit – were involved. Duggan was no angel. But it all went wrong. One officer took a round in the radio and Duggan died.

If a white person had died in a police operation gone wrong that would have been the end of the excitement. Certainly there would have been inquiries and inquests, but all after the event, at a measured pace. The “community” would not have taken to the streets. There may have been legal action; maybe petitions; MPs may have been written to, but thoughts would not have turned to violence. For that you need blacks.

There was a march from the Broadwater Farm estate to Tottenham police station. Peaceful at first, after a few hours it degenerated into violence. Police cars were set on fire; then buildings, then the violence changed from “protest” to acquisitive and looting began. The rioting spread beyond Tottenham to Enfield, Hackney, Lewisham, Waltham Forest, Islington, and as far away as Croydon and even Oxford Street in the West End of London. All these were caused by blacks looting.

Blacks, it seems, do not rely on the mechanisms of the state to put right their wrongs. They take direct action as a first, not a last, resort.

That white chavs then copied in other cities is lamentable certainly. But these other riots were not provoked by “culture”, they were genuine emulation of what had been seen on TV the night before; motivated by a desire for excitement.

Also noticeable by their absence were the other minority ethnic groups. Asians did not riot. Eastern Europeans did not riot. The Scots, Irish and Welsh did not riot. In fact some of the black versus Asian animosity, which is forever bubbling under in the UK but is not reported by the media, came to the fore. Blacks driving a stolen car rammed and killed three Asians in an attempt to get at their shops. Elsewhere some blacks made it a point to attack any passing white person. The Daily Mail reported white men having their clothes stolen by blacks. They also briefly reported white women being stripped by rioting blacks. But that article was removed from their website after a few hours.

So it seems that without the blacks the events of last week would never have happened. No-one would have been shot in the first place. And if someone had been shot it would not have resulted in rioting and looting.

Which brings us to the question of what to do to prevent these things happening again in the future.

The most likely establishment response is to become even more self-abasing towards blacks. The police will be even more reluctant to arrest black hoodlums; black misbehaviour will be punished even less than it is now; and the likes of Starkey will be hounded off our TV screens; quietly, after a discreet interval, to avoid any suggestion of censorship. More money will be poured into black neighbourhoods to give them nicer housing and daytime activities: bread and circuses to pacify them. Although the great and the good will condemn the actual rioters they will follow that up by throwing more danegeld at the black communities in an attempt to buy them off.

And nobody of any consequence will be allowed to point out that we need to get these people out of our country; that the problem will get worse not better as they get more numerous; that they breed more and faster than whites, and that they will eventually swamp our green and pleasant land in their lawlessness.

Nobody except the BNP; and the establishment will not listen to them.

Monday, 15 August 2011

Important speech by Nick Griffin

I haven't commented on last week's riots for no better reason than being away on vacation - however BNP Chairman Nick Griffin has said it all here...

Alternatively view it here.

Thursday, 4 August 2011

There's another parasite knocking at our door

Here he is: Vali Chapti, 57-years-old, resident of India. He speaks only Gujurati and is illiterate.

However, he is married to this lady...

...Rashida, 54-years-old, a textile worker. Rashida is a naturalised British citizen who migrated to the UK from Malawi in southeast Africa.

They have been been married for 37 years, but have lived apart for most of that time. But now Mr Chapti wants to join his wife in the UK. Unfortunately for him, and fortunately for the rest of us he can't come because he cannot pass the immigration English language test.

According to Mr Chapti, that's racist.

Now Mrs Chapti is at the High Court, using legal aid money, aka our taxes, to get the requirement to speak English overturned so her husband can move here and enjoy all our good things. He's getting to an age when free medicine would be quite useful; a state pension would also be handy; a bus-pass is not to be sneered at, and some council housing would be big improvement on his current shack.

Mr Chapti hasn't paid into our system at all, but he doesn't see why he shouldn't profit from it. We're just racist making him learn English - so that he has some, albeit minuscule, prospect of getting a job and integrating into our society. At the very least if he learns English he won't be costing us a state-funded interpreter when goes for his hospital appointments, or to the benefits office.

However, maybe we're being a bit harsh. Let's meet Mr Chapti halfway. He can come here if he learns Welsh!

Thursday, 28 July 2011

London sharia zone

The Muslims Against Crusades organisation is now staking its claim on a defined portion of our capital city

Islamic Zone: Click to enlarge

The boroughs of Newham, Tower Hamlets (home of the historic Tower of London) and Waltham Forest are being plastered with stickers saying: "You are entering a Sharia-controlled zone - Islamic rules enforced."

Poster: You have been warned

The posters forbid entirely lawful activities such as smoking, listening to music and concerts, as well as prostitution and drug-taking.

MAC are holding a Britain's First Islamic Emirate March this coming Saturday.

There has been increasing harassment of people displaying un-Islamic behaviour or dress in this area for several months now: women, even white women, berated for not wearing headscarves. People smoking during the holy month of Ramadan have been attacked.

Now it seems they are going "official" - taking over an area of London, in which admittedly whites are a minority. I wrote about this earlier this month; it's not a surprise, but it needs wider dissemination - after all, this is only the first of many such zones planned.

Already the police in the area are conniving with the muslims; only under considerable pressure are they arresting or prosecuting anyone putting up these posters or using violence to enforce sharia law.

Clearly this needs to be opposed with the utmost vigour. If left unchallenged it will become a fait accompli and an alien power will have successfully invaded and conquered an (admittedly small) part of our country.