Thursday, 31 May 2012

Irish referendum on the fiscal compact

You remember that meeting our PM "Dave" Cameron had in Brussels where he said, "No effing way!" to their proposals for a fiscal compact and changed the EU from 27 members to 26+1? No? Well never mind, it's just that the others all went ahead with the idea and the since it involves a change to the constitution the Irish have to have a referendum - they are voting today.

The new clause in the constitution, if accepted, will say:

The State may ratify the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union done at Brussels on the 2nd day of March 2012. No provision of this Constitution invalidates laws enacted, acts done or measures adopted by the State that are necessitated by the obligations of the State under that Treaty or prevents laws enacted, acts done or measures adopted by bodies competent under that Treaty from having the force of law in the State.

That paragraph may look innocuous but read it carefully; No provision of this Constitution invalidates laws enacted, acts done or measures adopted... So the treaty completely overrides the constitution; the rest of the constitution becomes subordinate to the treaty. Then, or prevents laws enacted, acts done or measures adopted by bodies competent under that Treaty from having the force of law in the State... So a "measure adopted by a body" has the force of law? What happened to democracy, to elected representatives making the laws? That has all gone overboard. In the future "bodies" will make the law.

The main reason the powers-that-be want a "yes" vote is because the two European bailout mechanisms (the European Financial Stability Mechanism, EFSM, and the European Financial Stability Facility, EFSF) are due to be merged into a single European Stability Mechanism, ESM, by March next year and getting money out of that will be conditional on having ratified the treaty. So Ireland's national budget would be blown out of the water if they vote no. They are hoping to borrow about €17bn next year.

So in a nutshell the options are: give up independence and get money, or keep independence and get no money.

All the opinion polls show a very large proportion of the Irish electorate are "undecided" so it's not clear what the outcome will be. This blog opines that it will probably be "yes" by a whisker, but it is possible the Irish will discover they have a backbone.

Monday, 28 May 2012

Another black baroness behaving badly

OK, strictly speaking an Asian baroness: Lady Warsi, co-chairman of the Conservative Party. This blog has documented the misbehaviour of Baroness Scotland and the repulsive Baroness Uddin, the latter deserving of some kind of record for the amount of dodgy expenses (£125K) she claimed and still has not repaid. Managing to dodge jail was also quite an achievement.

Lady Warsi is a bit of a tyro by comparison. She merely forgot to declare rent she received on a flat in Wembley to the Lords' Register of Interests (but did declare it in a couple of other places so the oversight is probably genuine) and more seriously, is alleged to have claimed expenses for staying in a different flat when the owner of said flat claims to have received nothing.

Lady Warsi wags her finger

The story seems to be that Warsi paid some cash to one Naweed Khan who was the main tenant of the flat to offset the cost of her staying there - cash which she claimed back from the taxpayer. The actual owner of the flat, a Dr Wafik Moustafa, says he got nothing from her or Khan. It looks like Khan pocketed the money - which as main tenant he may have been fully entitled to do, he was one suffering loss of amenity after all. Khan says he did receive payments.

Here the story gets a bit murkier. Naweed Khan seems to be a Conservative Party hanger-on; he ran for parliament as a Tory candidate in Birmingham but failed to get elected. (Warsi also ran for parliament and failed to get elected, she got made a baroness as a consolation prize - perhaps because she's a woman and the Conservatives did not have any female muslim peers at the time.)

Anyway, Warsi (divorced, remarried) and Khan seem to be muckers. Khan is now her special advisor (spad in the jargon.) Which means he is paid by the taxpayer to work for her on a personal basis. Warsi's main job is chairman of the Party, but she is also a minister without portfolio, which means she gets the ministerial perks including employing friends at public expense.

So Khan is standing by his mistress - as you would expect. Which is fortunate for Warsi because it pretty much puts her in the clear: she paid, if he did not pass that money on that is strictly between him and Dr Moustafa.

Moustafa by the way is an Egyptian immigrant. He qualified as a doctor in Cairo before moving to the UK and becoming a GP. Oh, and as I am sure you have guessed by now: he is a failed parliamentary candidate for the Conservative Party. This whole issue seems to have arisen out of a spat between Moustafa and his fellow MP-wanna-bes.

Moustafa founded and runs an organisation called the CAN - the Conservative Arab Network.

Dr Moustafa supports care in the community

The CAN has a mission statement: ...supporting the Conservative Party polices [sic] and raising awareness of British-Arab issues to the British Government, Conservative MP´s, Peers and Parliamentarians, to establish closer links on economic, trade, cultural and diplomatic relations. (This blog reckons it is policies not polices they support, but you never know...)

However its real purpose would appear to be to give Dr Moustafa a platform on which to get photographed with senior Tories. It's a classic case of: move to the UK and try to muscle in on the establishment. But Dr Moustafa's social climbing has been frustrated: despite its name, the CAN has not been accepted for affiliation with the Conservative Party, and that irks Dr Moustafa quite a lot; in fact so much that one might even suspect that he has fallen out with his fellow failed-MPs so much that he is now being indiscreet on the touchy subject of expenses.

What we are looking at here is a spat between muslim immigrants (Warsi was born in the UK, her parents came here from Pakistan) which has all the endearing qualities of three maggots arguing over a corpse.

It appears to this blog that all the participants in this affair are self-interested arrivistes who have lived their entire adult lives off the British taxpayer and the British interest would best be served by them unhooking their suckers from our veins and returning whence they came (or in Warsi's case: whence her parents came, and she visits often.)

Thursday, 24 May 2012

Recession is biting hard

The Office for National Statistics has just revised down its estimate for economic growth in Q1 2012. Previous they said GDP had shrunk by 0.2% but now they reckon it is more like 0.3%.

You will recall the economy also shrank by 0.3% in Q4 2011.

This graph from the Beeb needs looking at in some detail...

Look at how the current recession compares with the previous "worst ever" recession, the Great Depression of 1930-34 (strictly speaking it started with the Wall Street crash in October 1929.)

The depth of that previous recession was much the same as our current recession (which does not really have a name yet) but we are still swimming along under water whereas at this time in the Great Depression they were already out of it and back into positive growth.

The difference between then and now is that then the government took the pain on the chin, allowed deflation to occur, especially in asset prices, and once the economy had found a new base it started on the up-track again. This time they are continually kicking the can down the road and postponing the economic pain.

The result of this refusal to face the music means that the total hardship people will experience over the course of the recession will be much greater than it needed to be.

Tuesday, 22 May 2012

They are dead

Who is dead?

Robin Gibb, aged 62, a high-pitched singer who, with his two brothers, defined the 1970's popular music scene.

Abdelbaset al-Megrahi, aged 60, a man who was probably innocent, and certainly did not get a fair trial. Nor did he get decent medical treatment.

The irony is that when the Scottish prison doctors declared three years ago that al-Megrahi only had three months to live they were implicitly assuming that he would be under NHS care. In Libya he received drugs not available on the NHS and exceeded his life-expectancy twelve-fold.

Monday, 21 May 2012

Greece leaving the euro

How to leave the euro? What is the actual mechanism? Bloggers across Europe are taxing their grey cells to work out how the "with one jump he was free" moment could be achieved. Lord Wolfson, CEO of the High Street fashion retailer Next, has even offered a £250,000 prize for anyone who can sort out the details.

Tory MP John Redwood has come up with a rather bizarre and unlikely mechanism whereby Greeks will have to change their euros at one rate but foreigners get a better rate. If that ever came to pass this blogger would stand outside a Greek bureau de change waving his British passport and offer to act as an intermediary for any Greek wanting to cash in euros. Fortunes would be made!

And rumours of course abound that there is a G20 Special Study Group based in Rome which is working out how the Greek extraction will take place; drafting the legislation, ordering up the new banknotes - all in conditions of strictest secrecy. No links for this, it is just a rumour.

This blog has discussed the issue before, and now will pitch in with an idea.

It's called "New Drachma - a parallel currency." (Btw, in City dealing rooms the New Drachma is already trading, despite official policy being that Greece stays in the euro, and nobody having the slightest idea of what a New Drachma would be worth.)

The parallel currency idea works like this. The Greek government, quite openly, announces it is going to print up a new currency, the aforementioned New Drachma, hereinafter called "ND", using its euro-printing facility in Athens. The ND will be "soft pegged" to the euro. It will be legal tender in Greece and will notionally be equal in value to the euro. There will be no obligation to use it; no-one will be forced to accept it as payment for debts, but the Greek government will start paying its employees in a 80/20 euro/New Drachma split. Yes, all civil servants will be getting 20% of their salary in NDs (to a certain amount of dismay of course). But, on the flip side the Government will accept NDs for payment of taxes at par with the Euro. Also ND will be acceptable for other payments for state services such as train fares, bus fares, other fees and the like: all at parity with the euro.

So the ND, despite being unwelcome, will retain most of its value. Also the Greek government should announce some major asset sales, eg sell off some of those Ionian islands by auction, with ND accepted at par with the euro for payment. I say "announce" because the longer they prevaricate on this, the better it will be. The mere prospect of being able to use the ND for some major purchases in the future will help hold up its value.

Once the ND has been introduced it needs to be ratcheted up. The 80/20 split should drift inexorably to 50/50 - aiming to arrive at 100% ND a few years down the line.

Clearly the ND is going to be unwelcome on the Greek High Street. Immediately retailers will be giving a discount for real euros. And it's likely that, despite the soft peg, when you deposit ND100 in your Greek bank account only €95 will actually get credited (exact amount depending on daily trading and how convincing the soft peg is.)

To help the ND's credibility it should look very similar to the existing euro, perhaps using most of the same design but in different colours. However it should not be easily confused with the euro - there is no intent to deceive here, merely to inspire confidence.

Gresham's Law states that bad money drives out good. Gresham was talking about gold money where high gold-weight coins tended to be hoarded and low-weight coins of the same denomination were used instead. This will apply to the New Drachma as well. People will save their euros to be used where a ND cannot be tendered. This means the ND will permeate rapidly throughout Greece on a "hot potato" basis. Before long they will be as common as euros, then after that more common.

On the debt side, existing euro-denominated debt will continue to be paid in euros, but where the Greek government issues new bonds these will be ND bonds. As old gilts expire and are refinanced with NDs so the Greek national debt will migrate into New Drachma.

However the Greeks do need to stop living beyond their means. The public deficit should be reduced to zero. A certain amount of money printing could make this less painful than it would otherwise be.

The final phase of the Greek euro-exit is then, when the euro has become rare, and the ND has found a free-floating market rate of its own, to drop the euro as a legal tender altogether. By this time (hopefully) most Greeks and Greek businesses will have already chosen to deal mainly in NDs and convert their bank accounts to ND voluntarily for their own convenience.

By this time there should be a bit of an economic boom underway in Greece based on cheap holidays, cheap exports and expensive import replacement with domestic production and likely there will be a national feel-good mood with Greeks laughing up their sleeves every time a German tourist buys a glass of beer using euros and gets given his change in New Drachma.

And there you go; Greeks out of the euro with no drama. Lord Wolfson should feel free to send the quarter of a mil prize to the British National Party for their campaigning funds.

Tuesday, 15 May 2012

The boxes have struck again

Beccy Wade and her husband, and her ex-PA, and some others associated with the ill-fated News of the World have been charged with conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.

Bex: Not a happy bunny

She is charged with others of conspiring to "conceal material" from police, also of conspiring to remove seven boxes of material from the News International archive.

This is reminiscent of the Conrad Black case which hinged on "boxes of material" being removed from the premises in the dark of night.

However this blog does not care if precious celebs got their phones hacked, so we say: shred as you go folks; you know it makes sense!

Monday, 14 May 2012

Romano Prodi calls Euro a "House of Cards"

Amazing but true, former President of the EU Commission Romano Prodi, talking about a Greek departure from the euro has said, "Exit would bring down the whole house of cards, with one state falling after another: it would reach Portugal, Spain, then Italy and France."

Romano Prodi: The euro is a house of cards

So that's official: the euro is a house of cards. The man who knows has confirmed all our worst fears.

It's very strange thing to say. Presumably Prodi does not want the euro to collapse but rather than assuring us it's very strong he's saying it's very weak and must be protected. So he's making it more likely rather than less that the euro will collapse.

That said, this blog thinks that Greece leaving would strengthen rather than weaken the euro. And if Spain, Portugal, Italy and Ireland also left the euro would get even stronger. The euro would achieve ultimate strength when only Germany is left using it.

Getting there would be traumatic though.

Friday, 11 May 2012

Dr Starkey does it again

Not content with going on Question Time and saying that the 2011 summer riots were all down to black culture (blacks have culture, who knew?!) the Cambridge historian has only gone and blurted out the truth again; this time regarding the muslims convicted for raping white girls in Rochdale.

Old ruin (with historian in foreground)

He said "nobody ever explained" to the men – eight of Pakistani origin and one from Afghanistan – that women should not be treated in this way. Dr Starkey called for better teaching of English history to create a "common identity" and overcome the challenges of multiculturalism.

Full marks for epater les bourgeois David, but come on, "nobody ever explained", do you really think those rat-faced scum did not know they were doing a very bad thing? Of course they knew. They knew, but driven by lust and greed (I'm quoting the judge here) they did it anyway. Also, as the judge did not say, they were driven by their religion which allows under-aged sex and encourages the faithful to take the women of the kuffar as sex slaves.

However, please note, they focused entirely on white girls, no black girls were targeted, no girls from non-muslim Asian families; nope, just white girls. Why this "discrimination"?

It's because they are the "women of the enemy" pure and simple.

But Dr Starkey's teaching of English history idea is a bit weird. Does it have to be English? How about French history? Does he really think these muslims care about English history. They reject all "Christian" culture and undoubtedly have no interest in "dead white men" as the multicult call history. In fact they are probably functionally illiterate so in no position to learn any history.

Look what it takes to make mulims obey the law. Beheading, flogging, amputation: those are the punishments in muslim countries. They would obey our law if we did that to them, but we do not want to turn our country into a 3rd-world brutal state. Instead we need to just get rid of these people. Book learning is not going to turn savages into fine upstanding citizens. Let them live their barbaric ways on the far side of the globe.

Tuesday, 8 May 2012

BBC tells truth shock!

First, meet the latest batch of muslim paedophiles to be convicted...

This is an everyday story of the grooming and rape of white girls as young as 13 by a bunch of muslim men. Hardly worth reporting; we've seen it all before - and if you are a regular on this blog you know how and why they do it - Mohammed said they could, etc, etc.

The details are horrific...

Some of the girls were beaten and forced to have sex with "several men in a day, several times a week", the jury was told. One teenager told the jury she was forced to have sex with 20 men in one night.

Which begs the question: if 20 men raped her why have only nine been convicted? Where are the others?

But here comes the shocker. The BBC report includes the following paragraph...

The case, involving Asian defendants and white victims, sparked protests by far-right groups but police insist the grooming was not "racially motivated".

Yes, they reported the ethnicity of the rapists and the ethnicity of the victims! That's never happened before. In the past they have bent over backwards to avoid mentioning the ethnic aspects to the case.

That said, they have failed to report totally accurately. The scum may have been Asian but that is not their defining characteristic - they are all muslim. There will not have been any Asian Hindus, or Asian Sikhs or Asian Buddhists or Asian Christians in the group. So not full marks for the Beeb, but getting there.

And null points for the police. "Not racially motivated"? How politically correct can you get? Is it pure chance that the victims were all whites? I do not think so!

This pandering to ethnics has got to stop.

London elections: victory for the BNP

Hmmm... OK, maybe calling this "Victory for the BNP" is reaching a bit too far. But, let's have a look at the actual numbers and you will see what I mean. You will need to click on the results to enlarge them...

So the unlikely BNP candidate Carlos Cortiglia got 1.3% of the vote. That has more than halved the result of the BNP's 2008 candidate, Richard Barnbrook, who got 2.84% of the vote. The actual number of first preference votes were 69,710 in 2008 versus 28,751 this time.

The reasons for this collapse in support are two-fold. Firstly, Carlos is an immigrant, not a native Londoner. He is generally well-regarded in the Party it must be said, but still, selecting him as BNP candidate was political correctness taken to the extreme and the BNP paid the price. The second reason is simply down the change in demographics in London: the immigrants and ethnic "minorities" are now in charge. The natives have been pushed out, unable to afford housing against benefit-financed newcomers, and unwilling to tolerate the high level of crime and disorder that living amongst immigrants/ethnics entails.

The BNP now considers our capital city lost to the native British.

It's worth noting that Carlos did get another 73,353 second preference votes. This means a total of 102,104 electors expressed some sort of support for him, out of a total turnout of 2.2 million valid ballots cast. So close to 5% of voters are brave enough to put an X against the BNP in one column or the other.

Working out who these 2nd preferencers for the BNP are is quite challenging. The most obvious answer, that they are 1st pref UKIP voters cannot be a complete answer because there were only 43,000 approx of those. They are very unlikely to have been Labour, LibDem or Green 1st prefs because those are all effectively socialist parties. Likely they voted for Boris as the first pref, which is a shame - their votes would have been just as effective overall had they put Boris second (as this blog recommended) and the BNP first. This would have given the BNP a much bigger platform to work from. It seems the London electors still do not truly understand the 1st/2nd pref voting system and think their 2nd pref does not count as much as their 1st pref when in fact the 2nd pref counts equal with others 1st pref once the minority candidate has been eliminated.

So, where's the silver lining? What justifies the "victory for BNP" remark? Well, at the end of the night, when the dust had settled, it turned out that Boris only beat Ken by a measly 60,000 approx votes. In all probability Boris only won because BNP supporters put him either as first or second preference. Without the BNP it would be Ken as mayor of London right now. Labour wiped the board on election night: in the council elections, in the Greater London Assembly, Labour were ascendant - only the BNP's (and probably UKIP's) tacit support enabled Boris to win against the odds. So a victory of sorts for the BNP.

And that's pretty much the beginning and end of the good news. The BNP used to have a member on the Greater London Assembly. Well, no more, the results are below, again click to enlarge...

As you can see the BNP lost its one member on the GLA. The Party got 2.1% of the vote on the London-wide list, and it needed 5% to get someone onto the 25-member Assembly. Sadly, that's a fail.

It cannot have helped that the BNP's previous member on the GLA, Richard Barnbrook, left the party under rather mysterious circumstances mid-way though his term. The electorate do not like voting for one party and ending up being represented by a different party, or in Barnbrook's case, by an independent.

It's worth noting that some BNP constituency candidates for the GLA did much better than the Party average. Donna Treanor in Bexley and Bromley achieved 4.5% support and Paul Borg in the City obtained 4.1% of the votes.

The lessons for the future are pretty simple. Keep plugging away, but do not expect too much from London - it's a foreign land now.

Wednesday, 2 May 2012

Voting on 3rd May, 2012

Tomorrow lots of voting will happen in the UK. Most significantly there's the election for Mayor of London, the politician with the largest mandate in the country (whoever wins), the Greater London Assembly is also being elected; other cities are electing mayors; there are council elections, and several cities are voting to see if they want directly elected mayors.

Let's look at the London Mayoral race first...

Bonking Boris Johnson

The devil you know.

Tory candidate, mainly known for making five times more as a columnist than as a mayor during his term in office.

Ken "Gingrich" Livingston

Another devil you know.

Official Labour candidate. Bit of a tax dodger.

Brian "I like dick" Paddick

The devil you would rather not know.

Official Lib Dem candidate. Like most Lib Dems is a bit of a perv.

Jenny "the Fossil" Jones

Scary granny. Official Green candidate. Prior to politics she was mainly interested in old fossils.

Lawrence "Spider" Webb

Official UKIP candidate. Currently works as a political aide.

Carlos "the Jackel" Cortiglia

BNP candidate. Immigrant from Uruguay. Heaven only know why he joined the BNP or why they selected him as candidate.

Siobhan "the Pook" Benita

Unofficial Labour candidate. Don't like Ken? Here's a more "new" Labour candidate for you. She's some sort of Anglo-Indian-Italian mix and lurves "Diversity". Seems to have lived off the taxpayer all her life.

So there you have it - an uninspiring bunch. One of Ken or Boris will win, probably Boris.

Notable by their absence this year are the Left List, Respect, and the English Democrats.

So the question is, how should a patriotic nationalist vote? The normal choice would be the BNP candidate, but in a fit of auto-flagellation the BNP have chosen an immigrant candidate with little London pedigree.

The choice of Carlos has been controversial in nationalist circles. The BNP vote will certainly suffer. He was chosen to show how "reformed" the Party is. After all the legal problems of last year the High Command has been determined to put forward a candidate with no skeletons in his closet, mainly because he hasn't got a closet, or any sort of history in British politics.

But, there's a subtlety here. Carlos is mayoral candidate, but he is not Number One on the BNP's GLA list. Nope, he's fourth on the list, which means he's not going to get elected to the GLA either. The man first on the list might get elected, that's Steve Squire.

Steve Squire: Londoner and BNP stalwart

Steve is the BNP's London supremo and has a nationalist pedigree going back generations. He's the man the Party actually want to get elected to something.

So, when it comes to voting, this blog urges you to support the BNP candidate as your first choice, not because he's the right man for the job, but rather because it will help the Party to have a significant percentage of the votes when it comes to getting media attention and face-time on TV and the like.

As Cortiglia is not going to be elected your second preference vote is the one that actually counts. Here this blog urges you to vote for Boris Johnson. Reason? Well if you actually want to influence the outcome it has to be one of Boris or Ken and Boris has shown the occasional lapse into patriotism. It would be especially good if Boris could win only after second preference votes have been counted, and only thanks to the support of BNP members and supporters! This would make Boris beholden to the BNP which can't be a bad thing.

Obviously when it comes to the Greater London Assembly London-wide list, it's an easy tick in the BNP box. Hopefully Steve Squire will be elected.

There are also 14 constituencies represented on the GLA. The BNP is standing candidates in 6 of those constituencies, and if you are lucky enough to live in one of these areas you should put your X in the BNP box. (None of them will win, but they need your support and encouragement to keep them in the fight.)

If you live in one of the 8 London constituencies without a BNP candidate, you're on your own.

Tellingly UKIP, the "other" nationalist party, is not standing any candidates in the London constituencies, although they have a full slate for the London-wide list. This tells us something of their real nature. They have no interest in actually representing the people who elect them, they do not want to be jobbing politicians, they just want big wins and power without constituents to work for. Not for them surgeries or actually helping people.

So that's London sorted.

Also topical is the BNP's candidate for mayor of Liverpool. Cllr Mike Whitby had a visit from the police who smashed down his front door, handcuffed him, and marched him off to the police station. For what reason? Well actually no reason at all. He was later released without charge. The police were simply taking him out of circulation for a while. Details here. This is unacceptable but all too common.

So if you're in Liverpool give Councillor Whitby your vote. He won't win of course, it's a Labour fiefdom (which is why the police do their bidding) but he deserves your support and encouragement.

Tuesday, 1 May 2012

Contempt of Parliament

This is Russel Brand, 36-year-old comedian, actor, columnist, singer, author, former alcoholic, sex-and-heroin-addict and all-round media person. Here he is pictured testifying before the Home Affairs Select Committee of the British Parliament on the important and serious subject of drugs and drug abuse.

Mr Brand turned up unshaven, uncoiffed, wearing a torn tank-top shirt and black jeans. He then proceeded to crack jokes, sneer at the MPs and play to the audience. He said nothing of actual use to Parliament and did his utmost to undermine the institution.

At the very least he should have have been told to go away and come back another day properly dressed for the occasion; incarceration in the Tower would have been more fitting though.