Friday, 26 October 2012

We're out of recession, whoo hoo!

Yesterday the Office for National Statistics published its first tentative measure of the last quarter's GDP growth (ie July, August, September) and in this Olympic and Jubilee time it found that the economy had grown by a massive one percent!

The GDP numbers for the three preceding quarters were -0.2%, -0.2% and -0.7%, so this latest number almost wipes out the previous falls. We are almost positive on the year to date.

This means we are no longer in recession. Strangely although economists deem the economy to be in recession when we get two consecutive quarters of negative growth they deem us to be out of the woods when they see a single quarter of positive growth. And they certainly do not include a couple of very important factors.

First, there's the debt growth. A one percent GDP increase amounts to the economy growing by about 14 billion pounds. But over the same period the government  has borrowed about thirty billion pounds and injected it into the economy. And it borrowed the same in the previous recessionary quarters. You cannot reasonably call yourself richer if your debts have gone up by twice your assets. Duh!

Second, there is population growth. Despite the government's pledges we still have a net inward migration of about a hundred thousand people a year. So the cake may have gotten bigger, but your slice got smaller. Total GDP is of far less interest than per-capita GDP - that's the stat which actually makes you feel richer or poorer.

Once we see GDP growing faster than the debt, and inward migration stopped or reversed, then we are really out of recession, and not until. (By the way, the last year that actually happened was 2002!)

Monday, 22 October 2012

Have you heard of Bani Walid?

Not if you rely much on British TV for news, you haven't. The Libyan civil war is still raging and the town of Bani Walid is under siege. It is under the control of "pro-Gaddafi" forces. (You would have thought that "pro-Gaddafi" would be a moribund term by now, but no, they fight on. They fight because the New Libyan Government is not going to let them go unpunished for supporting Gaddafi back in the day.)

Several hundred people in Bani Walid have been injured and possibly as many as a hundred killed this month alone.

But it doesn't suit the mainstream media to cover this. As far as they are concerned: Gaddifi is dead, the good guys won, Libya is free - end of story. There is some American coverage, but the BBC and friends would not want to spoil a perfect ending by giving this story any prominence - just like they did not want to spoil their Christmas schedules by reporting Jimmy Savile's paedopilia.

He walked!

He normally cycles, but Friday last he walked off the job. Andrew "Thrasher" Mitchell quit his job as Chief Whip. That's a bit weird. He was basically home free, and then he quits. Did he think anyone cares about him now we have Jimmy Savile to worry about? Of course not.

(My spell-checker thinks "Savile" should be "Saveable" - how foolish is it?!)

Friday, 19 October 2012

Not under my roof or in my bed

Oh dear, Nick the Griff - BNP chairman and MEP for North West England - is being 'investigated' by the Thought Police (aka Cambridgeshire Constabulary) for having the sheer audacity of suggesting that a campaigning homosexual couple who have successfully sued for compensation for not being allowed to share a bed in a B&B should themselves be the subject of a peaceful demonstration by people who object to perversion being rammed down their throats.


Yuck!

Michael Black, 64, and John Morgan, 59, sued Susanne Wilkinson, Christian owner of a B&B in Berkshire. They were awarded £1,800 each for hurt feelings. Mrs Wilkinson has previously refused unmarried heterosexual couples a shared bed, so her actions are clearly not anti-homosexual as such. She is a devout Christian.

After the verdict Mr Griffin tweeted: "We'll hold demo... for rights of all home owners, gays included, to rent or not rent rooms to whomsoever they wish." He then asked if anyone knew their address.

The relevant information was obviously supplied because a couple of hours later he tweeted: "So Messrs Black & Morgan, at [address]. A British Justice team will come up to Huntington & give you a bit of drama by way of reminding you that an English couple's home is their castle. Say No to heterophobia!"

To the completely uninitiated a visit from a "Britsh Justice team" might seem somewhat alarming. However BNP demos are always completely peaceful on the BNP side. There isn't even any chanting; just a bunch of people standing there holding Union flags and placards; probably not even waving them, just holding them. Any violence always comes from the opposition; the so-called anti-fascists. (Since the BNP is not fascist it is not clear why they are opposed by "anti-fascists".) So Mr Griffin was not suggesting any violence, just a protest against the ever declining standards of public morality.

Time was if you checked into a hotel with your girlfriend you had to use the names "Mr & Mrs Smith". Of course back then homosexuality was illegal and Mrs Wilkinson would have had the full support of the police if she turned Black and Morgan in. Much against most people's better judgement homosexuality was decriminalised back in the 1960s. There seems to have been a naive impression that homosexuals would at least have the decency to keep it behind their own closed doors. Foolish us! That genie is out of the bottle and he is not going back.

The lesson here is: don't give an inch - they'll take a mile.

Friday, 12 October 2012

The second shoe is dropping

At a speech yesterday evening at the Mansion House in the City of London, Lord Turner - a candidate for the position of Governor of the Bank of England when Mervyn King retires next year - made the fatal suggestion that perhaps all the £375 billion of QE'ed money need not be repaid. It could just be written off in a paper exercise. At a stroke of the pen the UK's national debt would drop by a third.

Lord "Print-a-lot" Turner

Just for laughs let us remind ourselves of bread prices in post-WWI Germany; just to see what happens when you print money.

One 400g loaf of bread cost (in Marks)

Year      Price (M)
1914     0.13
1915     0.15
1916     0.19
1917     0.20
1918     0.22
1919     0.26
1920     1.20
1921     1.35
1922     3.50
1923     700 (start of year)
1923     100,000,000,000 (end of year)

After 1923 a new currency was introduced and the situation stabilised. Hitler made his first attempt to take over Germany in November 1923 - and actually became Chancellor in 1933.

What you can see from the prices above is that the end, when it comes, is very sudden; 1921 must have looked like an OK year, 1922 must have been worrying - and 1923 was chaos.

That said, Lord Turner is not favourite for the Governor job. Front-runner at the moment is current deputy Paul Tucker who has been with the Bank for the last 32 years so probably knows where the bodies are buried.

Tuesday, 2 October 2012

Good news! Keith Vaz in hot water

Yes, the repulsive Asian Labour MP Keith Vaz (his name is actually Nigel but he doesn't like to be called that) is in trouble. His financial affairs are under scrutiny. Turns out his mortgage outgoings were seven times higher than his pay - and the register of members' interests does not seem to explain the difference.

Nigel: Immigrant from the Yemen and MP for East Leicester

But the title said "good news" did it not? Why, you might be wondering is this good news? Well, it's only good news for Andrew Mitchell. He's off the hook now.

Don't call black people "darkies"

If you do call black people darkies you risk the fate of BNP former Stoke-on-Trent councillor Michael Coleman - a conviction in the Crown Court for racially-aggravated harassment; an eight-month jail term, suspended for two years; and an order to perform 240 hours of unpaid work.

Michael Coleman: BNP leader in Stoke

Mr Coleman wrote on his blog (The Stoke Patriot) an article on the 2011 riots that included the forbidden word and was duly crushed by the full weight of the law merely for exercising his Right of Free Speech. Heaven knows what would have happened to him had he actually used a rude word to describe the rioters: maybe the N-word, or the C-word.

In best Internet tradition the offending article is still online and can be read here.

Michael is of course unbowed and unrepentant. He will fight on, fight for all our lost liberties. Sadly he will not be fighting from his former berth - the Stoke council chamber itself - since the most significant effect of the Crown Court conviction is a five-year ban on standing for public office.

Free speech is now dead in this country. If "they" want to get you they will., Anything you say or write will be made out as "racist" - provided they know who you are (hence this blog being anonymous) and since Michael Coleman was brave enough to speak up there was never any doubt about who he was.